MoneylineBest pick
LIB MLodds down −833
Won 92%
Liberty wins the game.
Confidence92%
Model80.2%
SportsbooksOdds87.5%
Edge−7.3
Liberty vs New Mexico State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 3 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 30 |
| NMSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
LIBERTY 80%
Pre-game win chance
20% NEW MEXICO ST
LIB by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 7, 11:35 PM ET
Liberty vs New Mexico St picks
3 picks · Liberty by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
NMSU +24.5odds down −333
Won 82%
New Mexico St wins, or loses by 24 points or fewer.
Confidence82%
Model73.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+5.5
Total
Over 40.5odds up −227
Won 74%
The two teams score 41 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.6%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+2.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Liberty0140141428
New Mexico St77071421
Most likely final scoresLIB 28–21 NMSU 0.6%LIB 28–14 NMSU 0.5%LIB 24–21 NMSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
LibertyNew Mexico St
Offense
383▲ 399
Total yards
▼ 300323
199▲ 252
Passing yards
▲ 256192
184▼ 147
Rushing yards
▼ 44131
20▲ 24
First downs
▼ 1318
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
= 22
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
70▼ 50
Penalty yards
▼ 4056
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 309.5
Proj. 383
72%
Won · 399
Passing yards
Over 141.5
Proj. 199
72%
Won · 252
Rushing yards
Over 131.5
Proj. 184
72%
Won · 147
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 250.5
Proj. 323
72%
Won · 300
Passing yards
Over 134.5
Proj. 192
72%
Won · 256
Rushing yards
Over 79.5
Proj. 131
72%
Lost · 44
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
71%
Lost · 13
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Liberty
QB
Deshawn Purdie14/21 · 186 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT
186pass yds
RB
Kam Davis10 carries · 63 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
63rush yds
WR/TE
Makai Jackson5 rec · 82 yds · 0.3 TD
82rec yds
WR/TE
Jamari Person3 rec · 34 yds · 0.2 TD
34rec yds
New Mexico St
QB
Adam Damante16/26 · 159 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT
159pass yds
RB
James Jones17 carries · 98 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
98rush yds
WR/TE
AJ Williams3 rec · 41 yds · 0.5 TD
41rec yds
WR/TE
Brodrick Malone2 rec · 21 yds · 0.0 TD
21rec yds
Road form. Liberty is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 13.5 points a game.
Home form. New Mexico St is 2-2 at home, scoring 25.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NMSU +13.5 and is now NMSU +15.5, a 2-point move toward Liberty.
Rest. Liberty comes in on 7 days’ rest, New Mexico St on 10.
Streak. Liberty has won 7 in a row.
Tale of the tape
LibertyNew Mexico State
LibertyNew Mexico State
7-1Record3-5
3-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home
W7StreakL1
7 daysRest10 days
33.8Points per game21.5
13.5Points allowed25.3
+162
Point differentialseason to date
−30
199Passing yards / game193
212Rushing yards / game156
45%3rd-down conversion39%
11Takeaways10
0Sacks0
6Turnovers14
199Passing yards / game183
213Rushing yards / game193
39%3rd-down conversion42%
6Takeaways5
0Sacks0
2Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Liberty’s road games with New Mexico St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Liberty
7-1
WWWWW
Wk 9Oct 31vs FIU
FIU10Liberty49
FIU moneyline +450Liberty moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 22@ KENN
Liberty34Kennesaw St6
Liberty moneyline −417Kennesaw St moneyline +290
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8vs SHSU
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 2@ DEL
Liberty30Delaware14
Liberty moneyline −294Delaware moneyline +210
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 24@ CCU
Liberty34Coastal17
Liberty moneyline −145Coastal moneyline +110
WFINAL
New Mexico St
3-5
LWLWL
Wk 9Oct 28vs JVST
Jax State24New Mexico St0
Jax State moneyline −167New Mexico St moneyline +124
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 21@ SHSU
New Mexico St30Sam Houston24
New Mexico St moneyline −175Sam Houston moneyline +133
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7@ FIU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1vs WKU
Western KY13New Mexico St34
Western KY moneyline +102New Mexico St moneyline −132
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs UNM
New Mexico42New Mexico St18
New Mexico moneyline −588New Mexico St moneyline +345
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
LIBERTY
1
Wins
Avg. points30.0 – 27.0
Avg. total57.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
NEW MEXICO ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 8Williams Stadium (VA)
Liberty30New Mexico St27
Liberty moneyline +290New Mexico St moneyline −417
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (LIB)−714−714
Moneyline (NMSU)+480+480
Spread (NMSU)+13.5up +15.5
Total47.5down 46.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Liberty beat New Mexico State 30–14 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Liberty at −714 and New Mexico State at +480.
Our model predicted a final score of Liberty 28, New Mexico St 21. Its picks: Liberty to win (−833), won; New Mexico State +24.5 (−333), won; over 40.5 points (−227), won. The best pick was Liberty to win, at 92% confidence.