MoneylineBest pick
KENN ML−323
87%
Kennesaw St wins the game.
Confidence87%
Model70.0%
SportsbooksOdds74.0%
Edge−4.0
Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston prediction, picks and odds
SpreadKENN −7.5
Total46.5 points
Kickoff in2d 22h
Updated 3:17 PM ET
Kennesaw St vs Sam Houston picks
3 picks · Kennesaw St by 3 · 45 pointsSpread
SHSU +14.5odds up −238
77%
Sam Houston wins, or loses by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model65.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge−2.4
Total
Over 39.5odds down −256
74%
The two teams score 40 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model76.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+7.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Kennesaw St010771024
Sam Houston07014721
Most likely final scoresKENN 24–21 SHSU 0.6%KENN 28–21 SHSU 0.6%KENN 31–28 SHSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Kennesaw StSam Houston
Offense
378
Total yards
352
218
Passing yards
239
160
Rushing yards
113
20
First downs
19
Scoring
3
Touchdowns
2
1
Passing touchdowns
1
2
Rushing touchdowns
1
1
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
64
Penalty yards
70
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 305.5
Proj. 378
72%
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 218
72%
Rushing yards
Over 107.5
Proj. 160
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Total yards
Over 278.5
Proj. 352
72%
Passing yards
Over 182.5
Proj. 239
72%
Rushing yards
Over 60.5
Proj. 113
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Kennesaw St
QB
Landon Varnes11/18 · 146 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.2 INT
146pass yds
RB
Alan Woods III15 carries · 87 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 3 rec
87rush yds
WR/TE
Dylan Gary4 rec · 56 yds · 0.5 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Davis Bryson3 rec · 27 yds · 0.2 TD
27rec yds
Sam Houston
QB
Landyn Locke21/34 · 222 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT
222pass yds
RB
Landan Brown6 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
37rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Reed4 rec · 49 yds · 0.4 TD
49rec yds
WR/TE
Grady O'Neill5 rec · 46 yds · 0.2 TD
46rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at SHSU +8.5 and is now SHSU +7.5, a 1-point move toward Sam Houston.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Sam Houston has lost 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Kennesaw StateSam Houston
Kennesaw StateSam Houston
3-6Record1-8
W2StreakL6
7 daysRest7 days
25.1Points per game17.6
27.0Points allowed27.6
6th C-USAConference10th C-USA
−17
Point differentialseason to date
−90
232Passing yards / game240
130Rushing yards / game75
40%3rd-down conversion33%
11Takeaways9
0Sacks0
12Turnovers9
196Passing yards / game262
122Rushing yards / game91
36%3rd-down conversion36%
4Takeaways5
0Sacks0
3Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kennesaw St’s road games with Sam Houston’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Kennesaw St
3-6
LLLWW
Wk 10Nov 7vs DEL
Delaware40Kennesaw St42
Delaware moneyline −118Kennesaw St moneyline −104
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 28@ MTSU
Kennesaw St44MTSU28
Kennesaw St moneyline −116MTSU moneyline −115
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 22vs LIB
Liberty34Kennesaw St6
Liberty moneyline −417Kennesaw St moneyline +290
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14@ MOST
Kennesaw St21Missouri St24
Kennesaw St moneyline −152Missouri St moneyline +112
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7vs JVST
Jax State27Kennesaw St26
Jax State moneyline −154Kennesaw St moneyline +119
LFINAL
Sam Houston
1-8
LLLLL
Wk 10Nov 7@ JVST
Sam Houston14Jax State47
Sam Houston moneyline +525Jax State moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 27@ MOST
Sam Houston3Missouri St24
Sam Houston moneyline +170Missouri St moneyline −227
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 21vs NMSU
New Mexico St30Sam Houston24
New Mexico St moneyline −175Sam Houston moneyline +133
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14vs WKU
Western KY16Sam Houston3
Western KY moneyline −120Sam Houston moneyline −102
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ LIB
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (KENN)−303−303
Moneyline (SHSU)+235+235
Spread (SHSU)+8.5down +7.5
Total46.546.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Kennesaw State visits Sam Houston in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 2:00 PM ET. Kennesaw State comes in at 3-6 and Sam Houston at 1-8. The moneyline has Kennesaw State at −303 and Sam Houston at +235.
Our model predicts a final score of Kennesaw St 24, Sam Houston 21. Its picks: Kennesaw State to win (−323); Sam Houston +14.5 (−238); over 39.5 points (−256). The best pick is Kennesaw State to win, at 87% confidence.