Moneyline
KENN MLodds down −118
Won 69%
Kennesaw St wins the game.
Confidence69%
Model56.5%
SportsbooksOdds41.4%
Edge+15.1
Kennesaw State vs Middle Tennessee prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 7 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 |
| MTSU | 7 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 28 |
KENNESAW ST 58%
Pre-game win chance
42% MTSU
KENN by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 28, 11:04 PM ET
Kennesaw St vs MTSU picks
3 picks · Kennesaw St by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
KENN +3.5odds down −196
Won 78%
Kennesaw St wins, or loses by three points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model66.8%
SportsbooksOdds52.3%
Edge+14.5
TotalBest pick
Under 50.5odds down −123
Lost 67%
The two teams score 50 or fewer points between them.
Confidence67%
Model51.8%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+1.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Kennesaw St770141428
MTSU77071421
Most likely final scoresKENN 28–21 MTSU 0.6%KENN 24–21 MTSU 0.6%KENN 28–14 MTSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Kennesaw StMTSU
Offense
408▼ 318
Total yards
▲ 380370
243▼ 206
Passing yards
▼ 183220
165▼ 112
Rushing yards
▲ 197150
22▼ 14
First downs
▲ 2220
Scoring
3▲ 6
Touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▼ 1
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
60▲ 72
Penalty yards
▼ 5561
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 335.5
Proj. 408
72%
Lost · 318
Passing yards
Over 186.5
Proj. 244
72%
Won · 206
Rushing yards
Over 112.5
Proj. 165
72%
Lost · 112
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Lost · 14
Total yards
Over 297.5
Proj. 370
72%
Won · 380
Passing yards
Over 162.5
Proj. 220
72%
Won · 183
Rushing yards
Over 97.5
Proj. 150
72%
Won · 197
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Kennesaw St
QB
Rickie Collins19/29 · 224 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
224pass yds
RB
Alan Woods III12 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec
64rush yds
WR/TE
Javon Rogers3 rec · 53 yds · 0.3 TD
53rec yds
WR/TE
Dylan Gary4 rec · 52 yds · 0.5 TD
52rec yds
MTSU
QB
Roman Gagliano19/31 · 215 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
215pass yds
RB
Antonio Martin15 carries · 73 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
73rush yds
WR/TE
Cam'Ron Lacy6 rec · 54 yds · 0.3 TD
54rec yds
WR/TE
Terrence Brown Jr.4 rec · 22 yds · 0.0 TD
22rec yds
Road form. Kennesaw St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 13.0 points a game.
Home form. MTSU is 3-0 at home, scoring 32.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MTSU −3.5 and is now MTSU −0.5, a 3-point move toward Kennesaw St.
Rest. Kennesaw St comes in on 6 days’ rest, MTSU on 8.
Streak. Kennesaw St has lost 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Kennesaw StateMiddle Tennessee
Kennesaw StateMiddle Tennessee
1-6Record4-3
0-3 roadRoad / home3-0 home
L6StreakW2
6 daysRest8 days
20.0Points per game23.3
25.0Points allowed27.6
−35
Point differentialseason to date
−30
225Passing yards / game201
132Rushing yards / game139
40%3rd-down conversion26%
8Takeaways9
0Sacks0
8Turnovers4
193Passing yards / game221
125Rushing yards / game153
41%3rd-down conversion29%
2Takeaways5
0Sacks0
1Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kennesaw St’s road games with MTSU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Kennesaw St
1-6
LLLLL
Wk 8Oct 22vs LIB
Liberty34Kennesaw St6
Liberty moneyline −417Kennesaw St moneyline +290
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14@ MOST
Kennesaw St21Missouri St24
Kennesaw St moneyline −152Missouri St moneyline +112
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7vs JVST
Jax State27Kennesaw St26
Jax State moneyline −154Kennesaw St moneyline +119
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ ARST
Kennesaw St14Arkansas St17
Kennesaw St moneyline +187Arkansas St moneyline −263
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ TENN
Kennesaw St9Tennessee42
Kennesaw St moneyline +1500Tennessee moneyline −10000
LFINAL
MTSU
4-3
WLLWW
Wk 8Oct 20@ FIU
MTSU26FIU23
MTSU moneyline +300FIU moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 13vs DEL
Delaware30MTSU33
Delaware moneyline −123MTSU moneyline +100
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ KU
MTSU0Kansas55
MTSU moneyline +780Kansas moneyline −2500
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ JVST
MTSU13Jax State23
MTSU moneyline +220Jax State moneyline −323
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs NEV
Nevada20MTSU27
Nevada moneyline −200MTSU moneyline +145
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
KENNESAW ST
1
Wins
Avg. points24.0 – 16.0
Avg. total40.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
MTSU
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 5Fifth Third Stadium
Kennesaw St24MTSU16
Kennesaw St moneyline +195MTSU moneyline −278
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (KENN)−116−116
Moneyline (MTSU)−115−115
Spread (MTSU)−3.5up −0.5
Total51.5down 49.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 44–28 in college football Week 9, on Wednesday, October 28 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Kennesaw State at −116 and Middle Tennessee at −115.
Our model predicted a final score of Kennesaw St 28, MTSU 21. Its picks: Kennesaw State to win (−118), won; Kennesaw State +3.5 (−196), won; under 50.5 points (−123), lost. The best pick was under 50.5 points, at 67% confidence.