MoneylineBest pick
KENN MLodds up −145
Lost 55%
Kennesaw St wins the game.
Confidence55%
Model52.1%
SportsbooksOdds58.7%
Edge−6.6
Kennesaw State vs Missouri State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| MOST | 0 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 24 |
KENNESAW ST 52%
Pre-game win chance
48% MISSOURI ST
KENN by 3 · 51 points
Updated Oct 14, 11:08 PM ET
Kennesaw St vs Missouri St picks
3 picks · Kennesaw St by 3 · 51 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
MOST +3.5odds down −152
Won 66%
Missouri St wins, or loses by three points or fewer.
Confidence66%
Model58.0%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+7.1
Total
Over 49.5odds down −164
Lost 60%
The two teams score 50 or more points between them.
Confidence60%
Model54.8%
SportsbooksOdds52.0%
Edge+2.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Kennesaw St737101027
Missouri St710071724
Most likely final scoresKENN 27–24 MOST 0.5%KENN 31–28 MOST 0.4%KENN 28–25 MOST 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Kennesaw StMissouri St
Offense
413▼ 337
Total yards
▲ 421385
241▲ 260
Passing yards
▲ 303234
172▼ 77
Rushing yards
▼ 118151
22▲ 23
First downs
▲ 2621
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▼ 23
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 02
2▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 31
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
75▲ 97
Penalty yards
▲ 8461
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 339.5
Proj. 413
72%
Lost · 337
Passing yards
Over 183.5
Proj. 241
72%
Won · 260
Rushing yards
Over 119.5
Proj. 172
72%
Lost · 77
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
71%
Won · 23
Total yards
Over 312.5
Proj. 385
72%
Won · 421
Passing yards
Over 177.5
Proj. 234
72%
Won · 303
Rushing yards
Over 98.5
Proj. 151
72%
Won · 118
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
74%
Won · 26
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Kennesaw St
QB
Rickie Collins20/30 · 229 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT
229pass yds
RB
Alan Woods III10 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
45rush yds
WR/TE
Brayden Munroe4 rec · 67 yds · 0.0 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
Zion Booker6 rec · 53 yds · 0.0 TD
53rec yds
Missouri St
QB
Skyler Locklear16/23 · 177 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.5 INT
177pass yds
RB
Ramone Green Jr.9 carries · 46 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
46rush yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Myers5 rec · 97 yds · 0.5 TD
97rec yds
WR/TE
Mekhi Miller3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD
34rec yds
Road form. Kennesaw St is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 18.0 points a game.
Home form. Missouri St is 1-1 at home, scoring 36.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MOST +3.5 and is now MOST +2.5, a 1-point move toward Missouri St.
Rest. Kennesaw St comes in on 7 days’ rest, Missouri St on 6.
Streak. Kennesaw St has lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Kennesaw StateMissouri State
Kennesaw StateMissouri State
1-4Record1-4
0-2 roadRoad / home1-1 home
L4StreakL3
7 daysRest6 days
22.6Points per game21.8
23.4Points allowed32.4
−4
Point differentialseason to date
−53
216Passing yards / game209
157Rushing yards / game138
43%3rd-down conversion32%
7Takeaways6
0Sacks0
6Turnovers6
159Passing yards / game320
150Rushing yards / game225
46%3rd-down conversion50%
1Takeaways3
0Sacks0
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kennesaw St’s road games with Missouri St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Kennesaw St
1-4
WLLLL
Wk 6Oct 7vs JVST
Jax State27Kennesaw St26
Jax State moneyline −154Kennesaw St moneyline +119
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ ARST
Kennesaw St14Arkansas St17
Kennesaw St moneyline +187Arkansas St moneyline −263
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ TENN
Kennesaw St9Tennessee42
Kennesaw St moneyline +1500Tennessee moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs GAST
Georgia St31Kennesaw St17
Georgia St moneyline +235Kennesaw St moneyline −323
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 3vs WG
West Georgia0Kennesaw St47
West Georgia: no odds on recordKennesaw St: no odds on record
WFINAL
Missouri St
1-4
LWLLL
Wk 6Oct 8@ WKU
Missouri St13Western KY34
Missouri St: no odds on recordWestern KY: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ SMU
Missouri St24SMU34
Missouri St: no odds on recordSMU: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs MRSH
Marshall30Missouri St24
Marshall moneyline −204Missouri St moneyline +150
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs LIND
Lindenwood14Missouri St48
Lindenwood moneyline +520Missouri St moneyline −1000
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5@ TA&M
Missouri St0Texas A&M50
Missouri St moneyline +1100Texas A&M: no odds on record
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
KENNESAW ST
1
Wins
Avg. points41.0 – 34.0
Avg. total75.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
MISSOURI ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 13Kennesaw St home
Missouri St34Kennesaw St41
Missouri St moneyline +180Kennesaw St moneyline −250
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (KENN)−147down −152
Moneyline (MOST)+108up +112
Spread (MOST)+3.5down +2.5
Total50.5up 52.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Missouri State beat Kennesaw State 24–21 in college football Week 7, on Wednesday, October 14 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Kennesaw State at −152 and Missouri State at +112.
Our model predicted a final score of Kennesaw St 27, Missouri St 24. Its picks: Kennesaw State to win (−145), lost; Missouri State +3.5 (−152), won; over 49.5 points (−164), lost. The best pick was Kennesaw State to win, at 55% confidence.