Kansas vs TCU Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
KU	3	10	0	3	16
TCU	0	0	14	8	22

Kansas vs TCU picks

3 picks · TCU by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

TCU MLodds down −263 Won 80%

TCU wins the game.

Confidence80%

Model61.2% SportsbooksOdds66.9% Edge−5.7

SpreadBest pick

KU +12.5odds up −238 Won 77%

Kansas wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model69.8% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+1.7

Total

Over 40.5odds up −200 Lost 74%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model72.0% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+3.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Kansas77071421

TCU77771428

Most likely final scoresKU 21–28 TCU 0.7%KU 21–24 TCU 0.6%KU 24–27 TCU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

KansasTCU

Offense

360▲ 451 Total yards ▼ 286415

199▲ 285 Passing yards ▼ 141262

161▲ 166 Rushing yards ▼ 145153

20= 20 First downs ▼ 1921

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns = 33

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

0▲ 3 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

50▲ 63 Penalty yards ▲ 7464

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 286.5 Proj. 360 72% Won · 451

Passing yards Over 142.5 Proj. 199 72% Won · 285

Rushing yards Over 108.5 Proj. 160 72% Won · 166

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 20

Total yards Over 342.5 Proj. 415 72% Lost · 286

Passing yards Over 204.5 Proj. 262 72% Lost · 141

Rushing yards Over 101.5 Proj. 154 72% Won · 145

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 72% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Kansas

QB Isaiah Marshall15/28 · 189 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 189pass yds

RB Dylan Edwards16 carries · 68 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec 68rush yds

WR/TE Nik McMillan3 rec · 50 yds · 0.4 TD 50rec yds

WR/TE Cam Pickett4 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD 38rec yds

TCU

QB Jaden Craig21/31 · 262 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 262pass yds

RB Jon Denman8 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec 37rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Dwyer5 rec · 97 yds · 0.0 TD 97rec yds

WR/TE Kari Ashley5 rec · 68 yds · 0.7 TD 68rec yds

Road form. Kansas is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 14.0 points a game.

Home form. TCU is 2-3 at home, scoring 26.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at TCU −4.5 and is now TCU −6.5, a 2-point move toward TCU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

KansasTCU

3-4Record3-4

0-2 roadRoad / home2-3 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

31.0Points per game23.4

24.0Points allowed13.9

+49 Point differentialseason to date +67

238Passing yards / game295

208Rushing yards / game110

36%3rd-down conversion44%

7Takeaways9

0Sacks0

11Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kansas’ road games with TCU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.