Kansas vs Kansas State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
KU	17	0	7	0	24
KSU	7	11	7	10	35

Kansas vs Kansas St picks

3 picks · Kansas St by 14 · 42 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

KSU MLodds up −164 Won 93%

Kansas St wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model66.7% SportsbooksOdds65.0% Edge+1.7

Spread

KSU +2.5odds up −213 Won 80%

Kansas St wins, or loses by two points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model70.7% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+2.7

TotalBest pick

Under 64.5odds down −313 Won 82%

The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.

Confidence82%

Model76.1% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+6.8

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Kansas0707714

Kansas St77771428

Most likely final scoresKU 14–28 KSU 0.6%KU 28–31 KSU 0.6%KU 21–28 KSU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

KansasKansas St

Offense

376▼ 319 Total yards ▲ 568386

196▼ 151 Passing yards ▲ 209200

180▼ 168 Rushing yards ▲ 359186

20▼ 18 First downs ▲ 2520

Scoring

2= 2 Touchdowns ▼ 34

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns = 22

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

52▲ 66 Penalty yards ▲ 5550

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 303.5 Proj. 376 72% Won · 319

Passing yards Over 139.5 Proj. 196 72% Won · 151

Rushing yards Over 127.5 Proj. 180 72% Won · 168

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Won · 18

Total yards Over 313.5 Proj. 386 72% Won · 568

Passing yards Over 142.5 Proj. 200 72% Won · 209

Rushing yards Over 134.5 Proj. 187 72% Won · 359

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 25

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Kansas

QB Isaiah Marshall13/26 · 172 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 172pass yds

RB Dylan Edwards11 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 53rush yds

WR/TE Nik McMillan3 rec · 52 yds · 0.4 TD 52rec yds

WR/TE Cam Pickett5 rec · 51 yds · 0.0 TD 51rec yds

Kansas St

QB Avery Johnson17/28 · 192 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 192pass yds

RB Rodney Fields Jr.13 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 55rush yds

WR/TE Garrett Oakley3 rec · 41 yds · 0.3 TD 41rec yds

WR/TE Jaron Tibbs3 rec · 35 yds · 0.4 TD 35rec yds

Road form. Kansas is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 17.0 points a game.

Home form. Kansas St is 3-1 at home, scoring 38.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at KSU −9.5 and is now KSU −3.5, a 6-point move toward Kansas.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

KansasKansas State

2-3Record3-2

0-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L1StreakL2

7 daysRest7 days

33.6Points per game35.6

21.8Points allowed19.2

+59 Point differentialseason to date +82

261Passing yards / game228

215Rushing yards / game216

41%3rd-down conversion62%

5Takeaways3

0Sacks0

8Turnovers5

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kansas’ road games with Kansas St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.