Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
KSU	0	7	7	7	3	24
COLO	7	0	7	7	6	27

Kansas St vs Colorado picks

3 picks · Kansas St by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

KSU MLodds up +127 Lost 93%

Kansas St wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model66.6% SportsbooksOdds55.3% Edge+11.3

Spread

KSU +4.5odds up −152 Won 84%

Kansas St wins, or loses by four points or fewer.

Confidence84%

Model77.7% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+9.0

TotalBest pick

Over 40.5odds up −227 Won 81%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them.

Confidence81%

Model74.5% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+5.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Kansas St07714728

Colorado7077721

Most likely final scoresKSU 28–21 COLO 0.6%KSU 24–21 COLO 0.5%KSU 28–14 COLO 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Kansas StColorado

Offense

405▼ 347 Total yards ▲ 407369

223▲ 226 Passing yards ▼ 185223

182▼ 121 Rushing yards ▲ 222146

22▼ 19 First downs = 1919

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▲ 43

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 31

2▼ 1 Field goals made = 00

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

50▼ 35 Penalty yards ▼ 5360

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 332.5 Proj. 405 72% Won · 347

Passing yards Over 165.5 Proj. 223 72% Won · 226

Rushing yards Over 130.5 Proj. 182 72% Lost · 121

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 69% Won · 19

Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 369 72% Won · 407

Passing yards Over 166.5 Proj. 223 72% Won · 185

Rushing yards Over 93.5 Proj. 146 72% Won · 222

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Kansas St

QB Jacob Knuth20/33 · 223 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT 223pass yds

RB Joe Jackson12 carries · 50 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec 50rush yds

WR/TE Jaron Tibbs5 rec · 49 yds · 0.8 TD 49rec yds

WR/TE Joshua Manning4 rec · 46 yds · 0.3 TD 46rec yds

Colorado

QB Isaac Wilson11/21 · 139 pass yds · 1.2 TD · 0.7 INT 139pass yds

RB Jaquail Smith10 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Joseph Williams5 rec · 79 yds · 0.9 TD 79rec yds

WR/TE DeAndre Moore Jr.4 rec · 58 yds · 0.6 TD 58rec yds

Road form. Kansas St is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 8.0 points a game.

Home form. Colorado is 1-2 at home, scoring 27.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at COLO +2.5 and is now COLO −3.5, a 6-point move toward Colorado.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Colorado has lost 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Kansas StateColorado

4-3Record2-5

0-2 roadRoad / home1-2 home

L1StreakL5

7 daysRest7 days

32.9Points per game20.1

21.1Points allowed30.1

+82 Point differentialseason to date −70

220Passing yards / game267

218Rushing yards / game128

54%3rd-down conversion36%

4Takeaways7

0Sacks0

6Turnovers16

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kansas St’s road games with Colorado’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.