Kansas State vs Arizona State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
KSU	7	3	7	0	17
ASU	7	7	0	14	28

Kansas St vs Arizona St picks

3 picks · Kansas St by 3 · 59 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

KSU MLodds up −118 Lost 75%

Kansas St wins the game.

Confidence75%

Model59.2% SportsbooksOdds60.9% Edge−1.7

SpreadBest pick

ASU +10.5odds down −455 Won 76%

Arizona St wins, or loses by 10 points or fewer.

Confidence76%

Model68.8% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge−1.7

Total

Under 65.5odds down −303 Won 74%

The two teams score 65 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model77.7% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+7.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Kansas St0143141431

Arizona St0140141428

Most likely final scoresKSU 31–28 ASU 0.7%KSU 28–21 ASU 0.6%KSU 24–21 ASU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Kansas StArizona St

Offense

399▼ 278 Total yards ▼ 359373

212▼ 194 Passing yards ▼ 212213

187▼ 84 Rushing yards ▼ 147160

20▼ 18 First downs = 1919

Scoring

4▼ 2 Touchdowns ▲ 43

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 41

1= 1 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

46▼ 18 Penalty yards ▲ 5049

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 325.5 Proj. 399 72% Lost · 278

Passing yards Over 154.5 Proj. 212 72% Won · 194

Rushing yards Over 134.5 Proj. 187 72% Lost · 84

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 18

Total yards Over 299.5 Proj. 373 72% Won · 359

Passing yards Over 155.5 Proj. 213 72% Won · 212

Rushing yards Over 107.5 Proj. 160 72% Won · 147

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Kansas St

QB Avery Johnson19/33 · 204 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 204pass yds

RB Joe Jackson10 carries · 46 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec 46rush yds

WR/TE Garrett Oakley4 rec · 44 yds · 0.3 TD 44rec yds

WR/TE Jaron Tibbs4 rec · 42 yds · 0.6 TD 42rec yds

Arizona St

QB Mikey Keene9/15 · 75 pass yds · 0.4 TD · 0.0 INT 75pass yds

RB Cardae Mack7 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec 53rush yds

WR/TE Reed Harris5 rec · 84 yds · 1.1 TD 84rec yds

WR/TE Omarion Miller4 rec · 47 yds · 0.3 TD 47rec yds

Road form. Kansas St is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 5.0 points a game.

Home form. Arizona St is 2-1 at home, scoring 39.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ASU +3.5 and is now ASU +1.5, a 2-point move toward Arizona St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Kansas StateArizona State

4-2Record3-3

0-1 roadRoad / home2-1 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

35.5Points per game31.3

20.0Points allowed32.0

+93 Point differentialseason to date −4

225Passing yards / game277

240Rushing yards / game144

59%3rd-down conversion31%

4Takeaways6

0Sacks0

6Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kansas St’s road games with Arizona St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.