MoneylineBest pick
NE ML−357
Won 90%
The Patriots win the game.
Confidence90%
Model73.2%
SportsbooksOdds76.0%
Edge−2.8
New York Jets vs New England Patriots prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 18, 4:23 PM ET
Jets vs Patriots picks
3 picks · Patriots by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
NYJ +14.5odds up −270
Won 74%
The Jets win, or lose by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence74%
Model66.9%
SportsbooksOdds70.5%
Edge−3.6
Total
Under 50.5odds down −303
Won 76%
The two teams score 50 or fewer points between them.
Confidence76%
Model69.2%
SportsbooksOdds69.5%
Edge−0.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Jets7073717
Patriots370101020
Most likely final scoresNYJ 17–20 NE 0.9%NYJ 20–23 NE 0.6%NYJ 17–24 NE 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
JetsPatriots
Offense
273▲ 324
Total yards
▲ 383363
178▲ 227
Passing yards
▲ 235227
95▲ 97
Rushing yards
▲ 148136
16▲ 21
First downs
= 2222
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
▲ 32
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▲ 4
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
3= 3
Sacks allowed
▼ 03
55▼ 35
Penalty yards
▲ 5751
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 226.5
Proj. 273
72%
Won · 324
Passing yards
Over 137.5
Proj. 179
72%
Won · 227
Rushing yards
Over 66.5
Proj. 95
72%
Won · 97
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 16
72%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 316.5
Proj. 363
72%
Won · 383
Passing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 227
72%
Won · 235
Rushing yards
Over 107.5
Proj. 136
72%
Won · 148
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
75%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Jets
QB
Geno Smith20/31 · 178 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
178pass yds
RB
Braelon Allen11 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
48rush yds
WR/TE
Garrett Wilson6 rec · 70 yds · 0.5 TD
70rec yds
WR/TE
Kenyon Sadiq3 rec · 27 yds · 0.2 TD
27rec yds
Patriots
QB
Drake Maye20/30 · 227 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
227pass yds
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson12 carries · 49 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
49rush yds
WR/TE
Romeo Doubs3 rec · 41 yds · 0.3 TD
41rec yds
WR/TE
Hunter Henry3 rec · 33 yds · 0.1 TD
33rec yds
Road form. The Jets are 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 1.7 points a game.
Home form. The Patriots are 2-0 at home, scoring 32.5 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two AFC East rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
The series. The Patriots have won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Tale of the tape
New York JetsNew England Patriots
New York JetsNew England Patriots
2-3Record3-2
1-2 roadRoad / home2-0 home
W1StreakW2
7 daysRest7 days
18.6Points per game22.0
19.2Points allowed18.8
−3
Point differentialseason to date
+16
4.8Yards per play5.8
190Passing yards / game245
94Rushing yards / game127
36%3rd-down conversion38%
46%Red-zone touchdowns57%
6Takeaways6
17Sacks11
3Turnovers11
5.5Yards per play7.3
197Passing yards / game281
90Rushing yards / game151
26%3rd-down conversion42%
50%Red-zone touchdowns67%
3Takeaways3
6Sacks7
1Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Jets’ road games with the Patriots’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Jets
2-3
WLLLW
Wk 5Oct 11vs CLE
Browns12Jets17
Browns moneyline +121Jets moneyline −149
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CHI
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ DET
Jets24Lions31
Jets moneyline +240Lions moneyline −323
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs GB
Packers20Jets17
Packers moneyline −182Jets moneyline +147
LF/OT
Wk 1Sep 13@ TEN
Jets23Titans10
Jets moneyline −102Titans moneyline −119
WFINAL
Patriots
3-2
LWLWW
Wk 5Oct 11vs LV
Raiders17Patriots45
Raiders moneyline +148Patriots moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ BUF
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ JAX
Patriots6Jaguars35
Patriots moneyline +132Jaguars moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs PIT
Steelers3Patriots20
Steelers moneyline +185Patriots moneyline −238
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 9@ SEA
Patriots10Seahawks13
Patriots moneyline +147Seahawks moneyline −182
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this game
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
JETS
2
Wins
Avg. points17.4 – 20.0
Avg. total37.4 pts
Over closing total2 of 5
3
PATRIOTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 17MetLife Stadium
Patriots42Jets10
Patriots moneyline −1000Jets moneyline +560
2025 · Wk 11Gillette Stadium
Jets14Patriots27
Jets moneyline +560Patriots moneyline −909
2024 · Wk 8Gillette Stadium
Jets22Patriots25
Jets moneyline −357Patriots moneyline +255
2024 · Wk 3MetLife Stadium
Patriots3Jets24
Patriots moneyline +225Jets moneyline −303
2023 · Wk 18Gillette Stadium
Jets17Patriots3
Jets moneyline +118Patriots moneyline −139
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NYJ)+290down +280
Moneyline (NE)−370up −357
Spread (NE)−7.5−7.5
Total43.5down 43
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The New England Patriots beat the New York Jets 26–19 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 1:00 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough. The moneyline had the Jets at +280 and the Patriots at −357.
Our model predicted a final score of Jets 17, Patriots 20. Its picks: the Patriots to win (−357), won; the Jets +14.5 (−270), won; under 50.5 points (−303), won. The best pick was the Patriots to win, at 90% confidence.