MoneylineBest pick
JVST MLodds down −313
82%
Jax State wins the game.
Confidence82%
Model65.2%
SportsbooksOdds71.0%
Edge−5.8
Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky prediction, picks and odds
SpreadJVST −7.5
Total54.5 points
Kickoff in2d 23h
Updated 2:18 PM ET
Jax State vs Western KY picks
3 picks · Jax State by 7 · 49 pointsSpread
WKU +14.5odds up −238
80%
Western KY wins, or loses by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence80%
Model70.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+2.4
Total
Under 61.5odds up −222
74%
The two teams score 61 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge−0.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Jax State014771428
Western KY0777721
Most likely final scoresJVST 28–21 WKU 0.6%JVST 31–28 WKU 0.6%JVST 24–21 WKU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Jax StateWestern KY
Offense
406
Total yards
374
230
Passing yards
213
176
Rushing yards
161
21
First downs
20
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
3
2
Passing touchdowns
2
2
Rushing touchdowns
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
56
Penalty yards
58
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 333.5
Proj. 406
72%
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Rushing yards
Over 123.5
Proj. 176
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
71%
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 374
72%
Passing yards
Over 155.5
Proj. 213
72%
Rushing yards
Over 108.5
Proj. 161
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Jax State
QB
Caden Creel19/30 · 225 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
225pass yds
RB
Khristian Lando4 carries · 11 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
11rush yds
WR/TE
Luke Gilbert3 rec · 40 yds · 0.4 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
Jamill Williams3 rec · 26 yds · 0.6 TD
26rec yds
Western KY
QB
Brock Glenn11/20 · 111 pass yds · 1.1 TD · 0.5 INT
111pass yds
RB
Ajay Allen11 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 3 rec
57rush yds
WR/TE
Jonathan Stafford Jr.6 rec · 58 yds · 0.2 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Moussa Barry3 rec · 37 yds · 0.4 TD
37rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at WKU +6.5 and is now WKU +7.5, a 1-point move toward Jax State.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Jax State has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Jacksonville StateWestern Kentucky
Jacksonville StateWestern Kentucky
7-2Record3-6
W6StreakL2
7 daysRest7 days
29.1Points per game23.6
19.2Points allowed33.3
2nd C-USAConference9th C-USA
+89
Point differentialseason to date
−88
230Passing yards / game226
175Rushing yards / game157
45%3rd-down conversion40%
7Takeaways7
0Sacks0
12Turnovers12
198Passing yards / game296
161Rushing yards / game216
48%3rd-down conversion45%
4Takeaways2
0Sacks0
7Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Jax State’s road games with Western KY’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Jax State
7-2
WWWWW
Wk 10Nov 7vs SHSU
Sam Houston14Jax State47
Sam Houston moneyline +525Jax State moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 28@ NMSU
Jax State24New Mexico St0
Jax State moneyline −167New Mexico St moneyline +124
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 13vs FIU
FIU24Jax State27
FIU moneyline +113Jax State moneyline −154
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7@ KENN
Jax State27Kennesaw St26
Jax State moneyline −154Kennesaw St moneyline +119
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MTSU
MTSU13Jax State23
MTSU moneyline +220Jax State moneyline −323
WFINAL
Western KY
3-6
LWWLL
Wk 10Nov 7@ MTSU
Western KY42MTSU51
Western KY moneyline −143MTSU moneyline +116
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 27vs DEL
Delaware35Western KY21
Delaware moneyline +108Western KY moneyline −141
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14@ SHSU
Western KY16Sam Houston3
Western KY moneyline −120Sam Houston moneyline −102
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8vs MOST
Missouri St13Western KY34
Missouri St: no odds on recordWestern KY: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1@ NMSU
Western KY13New Mexico St34
Western KY moneyline +102New Mexico St moneyline −132
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
JAX STATE
1
Wins
Avg. points37.0 – 34.0
Avg. total71.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
WESTERN KY
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 14Jax State home
Western KY34Jax State37
Western KY moneyline −125Jax State moneyline −103
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (JVST)−286−286
Moneyline (WKU)+225+225
Spread (WKU)+6.5up +7.5
Total52.5up 54.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Jacksonville State visits Western Kentucky in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET. Jacksonville State comes in at 7-2 and Western Kentucky at 3-6. The moneyline has Jacksonville State at −286 and Western Kentucky at +225.
Our model predicts a final score of Jax State 28, Western KY 21. Its picks: Jacksonville State to win (−313); Western Kentucky +14.5 (−238); under 61.5 points (−222). The best pick is Jacksonville State to win, at 82% confidence.