MoneylineBest pick
JVST MLodds down −159
Won 72%
Jax State wins the game.
Confidence72%
Model55.0%
SportsbooksOdds57.1%
Edge−2.1
Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JVST | 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 24 |
| NMSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
JAX STATE 55%
Pre-game win chance
45% NEW MEXICO ST
JVST by 2 · 32 points
Updated Oct 28, 11:34 PM ET
Jax State vs New Mexico St picks
3 picks · Jax State by 2 · 32 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
NMSU +2.5odds up −101
Lost 69%
New Mexico St wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence69%
Model49.4%
SportsbooksOdds47.7%
Edge+1.7
Total
Under 49.5odds up −106
Won 74%
The two teams score 49 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model53.1%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+3.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Jax State77301417
New Mexico St0078015
Most likely final scoresJVST 17–15 NMSU 0.2%JVST 21–20 NMSU 0.2%JVST 24–23 NMSU 0.2%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Jax StateNew Mexico St
Offense
360▲ 433
Total yards
▼ 221360
225▼ 109
Passing yards
▼ 29214
135▲ 324
Rushing yards
▲ 192146
19▲ 23
First downs
▼ 1120
Scoring
2▲ 3
Touchdowns
▼ 02
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Field goals made
= 00
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
65▼ 40
Penalty yards
▼ 5060
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 286.5
Proj. 360
72%
Won · 433
Passing yards
Over 167.5
Proj. 225
72%
Lost · 109
Rushing yards
Over 82.5
Proj. 135
72%
Won · 324
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 23
Total yards
Over 286.5
Proj. 360
72%
Lost · 221
Passing yards
Over 156.5
Proj. 214
72%
Lost · 29
Rushing yards
Over 94.5
Proj. 146
72%
Won · 192
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Lost · 11
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Jax State
QB
Caden Creel18/29 · 218 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
218pass yds
RB
Jalen Likely8 carries · 33 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
33rush yds
WR/TE
Deondre Johnson3 rec · 57 yds · 0.3 TD
57rec yds
WR/TE
Darius Cannon3 rec · 24 yds · 0.0 TD
24rec yds
New Mexico St
QB
Adam Damante15/22 · 132 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.5 INT
132pass yds
RB
James Jones18 carries · 108 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
108rush yds
WR/TE
Josiah Thomas3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD
34rec yds
WR/TE
Terrell Washington Jr.2 rec · 17 yds · 0.0 TD
17rec yds
Road form. Jax State is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 9.0 points a game.
Home form. New Mexico St is 2-1 at home, scoring 34.3 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 49.5 and is now 50.5.
Rest. Jax State comes in on 15 days’ rest, New Mexico St on 7.
Streak. Jax State has won 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
Jacksonville StateNew Mexico State
5-2Record3-4
1-2 roadRoad / home2-1 home
W4StreakW1
15 daysRest7 days
27.3Points per game24.6
22.7Points allowed25.4
+32
Point differentialseason to date
−6
240Passing yards / game216
150Rushing yards / game151
46%3rd-down conversion38%
6Takeaways8
0Sacks0
10Turnovers13
227Passing yards / game235
107Rushing yards / game193
46%3rd-down conversion38%
3Takeaways3
0Sacks0
5Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Jax State’s road games with New Mexico St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Jax State
5-2
LWWWW
Wk 7Oct 13vs FIU
FIU24Jax State27
FIU moneyline +113Jax State moneyline −154
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7@ KENN
Jax State27Kennesaw St26
Jax State moneyline −154Kennesaw St moneyline +119
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MTSU
MTSU13Jax State23
MTSU moneyline +220Jax State moneyline −323
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs GASO
GA Southern27Jax State31
GA Southern moneyline +137Jax State moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ OHIO
Jax State27Ohio29
Jax State moneyline +102Ohio moneyline −130
LF/OT
New Mexico St
3-4
LLWLW
Wk 8Oct 21@ SHSU
New Mexico St30Sam Houston24
New Mexico St moneyline −175Sam Houston moneyline +133
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7@ FIU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1vs WKU
Western KY13New Mexico St34
Western KY moneyline +102New Mexico St moneyline −132
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs UNM
New Mexico42New Mexico St18
New Mexico moneyline −588New Mexico St moneyline +345
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ HAW
New Mexico St19Hawai'i29
New Mexico St: no odds on recordHawai'i: no odds on record
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (JVST)−169up −167
Moneyline (NMSU)+128down +124
Spread (NMSU)+3.5+3.5
Total49.5up 50.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Jacksonville State beat New Mexico State 24–0 in college football Week 9, on Wednesday, October 28 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Jacksonville State at −167 and New Mexico State at +124.
Our model predicted a final score of Jax State 17, New Mexico St 15. Its picks: Jacksonville State to win (−159), won; New Mexico State +2.5 (−101), lost; under 49.5 points (−106), won. The best pick was Jacksonville State to win, at 72% confidence.