Iowa vs Northwestern Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IOWA	7	7	10	0	24
NU	0	0	3	7	10

Iowa vs Northwestern picks

3 picks · Iowa by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

IOWA MLodds down −167 Won 62%

Iowa wins the game.

Confidence62%

Model53.9% SportsbooksOdds47.6% Edge+6.3

SpreadBest pick

IOWA +1.5odds down −175 Won 74%

Iowa wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence74%

Model56.2% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+6.2

Total

Over 42.5odds down −123 Lost 74%

The two teams score 43 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model53.8% SportsbooksOdds50.1% Edge+3.7

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Iowa07147728

Northwestern77701421

Most likely final scoresIOWA 28–21 NU 0.6%IOWA 24–21 NU 0.5%IOWA 31–28 NU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

IowaNorthwestern

Offense

365▼ 296 Total yards ▼ 286354

214▼ 126 Passing yards ▼ 181222

151▲ 170 Rushing yards ▼ 105132

19▼ 14 First downs = 1919

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 12

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 11

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

2▼ 1 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▼ 01

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

46▼ 45 Penalty yards ▼ 2051

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 291.5 Proj. 365 72% Won · 296

Passing yards Over 156.5 Proj. 214 72% Lost · 126

Rushing yards Over 98.5 Proj. 151 72% Won · 170

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 71% Lost · 14

Total yards Over 281.5 Proj. 354 72% Won · 286

Passing yards Over 164.5 Proj. 222 72% Won · 181

Rushing yards Over 80.5 Proj. 133 72% Won · 105

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 70% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Iowa

QB Hank Brown15/24 · 175 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 175pass yds

RB Kamari Moulton17 carries · 101 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 101rush yds

WR/TE Reece Vander Zee3 rec · 51 yds · 0.8 TD 51rec yds

WR/TE DJ Vonnahme5 rec · 48 yds · 0.8 TD 48rec yds

Northwestern

QB Aidan Chiles18/28 · 222 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 222pass yds

RB Caleb Komolafe13 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 58rush yds

WR/TE Griffin Wilde6 rec · 92 yds · 0.6 TD 92rec yds

WR/TE Drew Wagner4 rec · 32 yds · 0.2 TD 32rec yds

Road form. Iowa is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 5.0 points a game.

Home form. Northwestern is 5-0 at home, scoring 39.2 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at NU −1.5 and is now NU +3.5, a 5-point move toward Iowa.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

IowaNorthwestern

6-2Record6-2

2-1 roadRoad / home5-0 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

28.3Points per game33.6

12.5Points allowed18.8

+126 Point differentialseason to date +119

209Passing yards / game237

174Rushing yards / game201

39%3rd-down conversion46%

9Takeaways13

0Sacks0

8Turnovers3

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Iowa’s road games with Northwestern’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.