Iowa vs Minnesota Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
IOWA	0	3	0	7	10
MINN	3	0	7	3	13

Iowa vs Minnesota picks

3 picks · Iowa by 3 · 45 points · 0 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

IOWA MLodds down −303 Lost 93%

Iowa wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model74.3% SportsbooksOdds71.7% Edge+2.6

Spread

IOWA +1.5odds down −323 Lost 83%

Iowa wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence83%

Model76.1% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge+6.2

Total

Over 34.5odds up −227 Lost 74%

The two teams score 35 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model73.2% SportsbooksOdds68.6% Edge+4.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Iowa010771024

Minnesota014701421

Most likely final scoresIOWA 24–21 MINN 0.7%IOWA 35–7 MINN 0.7%IOWA 21–14 MINN 0.7%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

IowaMinnesota

Offense

347▼ 288 Total yards ▼ 209294

185▲ 198 Passing yards ▼ 137205

162▼ 90 Rushing yards ▼ 7289

19▼ 16 First downs ▼ 1116

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns ▼ 12

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns = 11

1= 1 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1▲ 4 Turnovers = 11

1▲ 3 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

51▼ 25 Penalty yards = 5050

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 274.5 Proj. 347 72% Won · 288

Passing yards Over 127.5 Proj. 185 72% Won · 198

Rushing yards Over 109.5 Proj. 162 72% Lost · 90

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 70% Won · 16

Total yards Over 220.5 Proj. 294 72% Lost · 209

Passing yards Over 148.5 Proj. 205 72% Lost · 137

Rushing yards Over 36.5 Proj. 89 72% Won · 72

First downs Over 12.5 Proj. 16 73% Lost · 11

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Iowa

QB Jeremy Hecklinski7/12 · 91 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.3 INT 91pass yds

RB Kamari Moulton17 carries · 113 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 3 rec 113rush yds

WR/TE Tony Diaz4 rec · 48 yds · 0.1 TD 48rec yds

WR/TE DJ Vonnahme3 rec · 39 yds · 0.3 TD 39rec yds

Minnesota

QB Drake Lindsey19/31 · 193 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 193pass yds

RB Darius Taylor14 carries · 31 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec 31rush yds

WR/TE Javon Tracy5 rec · 54 yds · 0.1 TD 54rec yds

WR/TE Noah Jennings4 rec · 52 yds · 0.1 TD 52rec yds

Road form. Iowa is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 9.0 points a game.

Home form. Minnesota is 3-1 at home, scoring 33.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MINN +5.5 and is now MINN +7.5, a 2-point move toward Iowa.

Rest. Iowa comes in on 15 days’ rest, Minnesota on 14.

Tale of the tape

IowaMinnesota

5-1Record4-2

2-0 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W1StreakL1

15 daysRest14 days

31.0Points per game28.8

14.5Points allowed21.8

+99 Point differentialseason to date +42

209Passing yards / game237

194Rushing yards / game105

39%3rd-down conversion37%

5Takeaways8

0Sacks0

3Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Iowa’s road games with Minnesota’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.