Iowa State vs Baylor Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ISU	10	7	0	14	31
BAY	0	21	14	7	42

Iowa State vs Baylor picks

3 picks · Baylor by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

BAY ML−417 Won 91%

Baylor wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model69.1% SportsbooksOdds78.1% Edge−9.0

Spread

ISU +17.5odds up −238 Won 81%

Iowa State wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.

Confidence81%

Model71.7% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+2.5

Total

Over 43.5odds down −256 Won 74%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.7% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+1.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Iowa State77071421

Baylor770141428

Most likely final scoresISU 21–28 BAY 0.7%ISU 28–31 BAY 0.6%ISU 24–27 BAY 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Iowa StateBaylor

Offense

363▲ 472 Total yards ▼ 423427

217▲ 256 Passing yards ▼ 229270

146▲ 216 Rushing yards ▲ 194157

20▲ 25 First downs ▼ 2021

Scoring

2▲ 4 Touchdowns ▲ 64

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns = 22

1▲ 2 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 42

2▼ 1 Field goals made = 00

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▲ 65 Penalty yards ▼ 1562

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 289.5 Proj. 363 72% Won · 472

Passing yards Over 160.5 Proj. 217 72% Won · 256

Rushing yards Over 93.5 Proj. 146 72% Won · 216

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 25

Total yards Over 353.5 Proj. 427 72% Won · 423

Passing yards Over 212.5 Proj. 270 72% Won · 229

Rushing yards Over 104.5 Proj. 157 72% Won · 194

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 70% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Iowa State

QB Jaylen Raynor17/28 · 196 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT 196pass yds

RB Aiden Flora17 carries · 100 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec 100rush yds

WR/TE Jamal Polite Jr.2 rec · 47 yds · 0.2 TD 47rec yds

WR/TE Tyler Claiborne3 rec · 25 yds · 0.0 TD 25rec yds

Baylor

QB DJ Lagway22/35 · 267 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 267pass yds

RB Caden Knighten8 carries · 42 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 42rush yds

WR/TE Gavin Freeman7 rec · 90 yds · 0.3 TD 90rec yds

WR/TE Louis Brown3 rec · 55 yds · 0.4 TD 55rec yds

Road form. Iowa State is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 17.7 points a game.

Home form. Baylor is 3-1 at home, scoring 27.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BAY −9.5 and is now BAY −10.5, a 1-point move toward Baylor.

Rest. Iowa State comes in on 7 days’ rest, Baylor on 8.

Tale of the tape

Iowa StateBaylor

4-4Record5-3

0-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W1StreakW1

7 daysRest8 days

29.0Points per game30.6

27.3Points allowed15.3

+14 Point differentialseason to date +123

193Passing yards / game284

177Rushing yards / game151

33%3rd-down conversion40%

10Takeaways15

0Sacks0

7Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Iowa State’s road games with Baylor’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.