Iowa State vs Arizona Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ISU	3	0	0	0	3
ARIZ	15	10	0	14	39

Iowa State vs Arizona picks

3 picks · Arizona by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

ARIZ MLodds down −417 Won 72%

Arizona wins the game.

Confidence72%

Model55.0% SportsbooksOdds76.3% Edge−21.3

Spread

ISU +19.5odds up −250 Lost 73%

Iowa State wins, or loses by 19 points or fewer.

Confidence73%

Model58.3% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge−11.6

Total

Under 59.5odds down −278 Won 74%

The two teams score 59 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model56.7% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge−13.1

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Iowa State0777721

Arizona0140141428

Most likely final scoresISU 21–28 ARIZ 0.6%ISU 14–21 ARIZ 0.6%ISU 21–24 ARIZ 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Iowa StateArizona

Offense

345▼ 225 Total yards ▲ 479414

190▼ 169 Passing yards ▲ 336255

155▼ 56 Rushing yards ▼ 143159

19▼ 14 First downs ▲ 2420

Scoring

3▼ 0 Touchdowns ▲ 54

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns = 22

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

51▼ 43 Penalty yards ▼ 5058

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 271.5 Proj. 345 72% Lost · 225

Passing yards Over 133.5 Proj. 190 72% Won · 169

Rushing yards Over 102.5 Proj. 155 72% Lost · 56

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 71% Lost · 14

Total yards Over 341.5 Proj. 414 72% Won · 479

Passing yards Over 198.5 Proj. 255 72% Won · 336

Rushing yards Over 106.5 Proj. 159 72% Won · 143

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Iowa State

QB Jaylen Raynor16/29 · 178 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT 178pass yds

RB Aiden Flora16 carries · 97 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 3 rec 97rush yds

WR/TE Cody Jackson4 rec · 70 yds · 0.3 TD 70rec yds

WR/TE Omari Hayes3 rec · 37 yds · 0.1 TD 37rec yds

Arizona

QB Noah Fifita19/29 · 244 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.5 INT 244pass yds

RB Kedrick Reescano12 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec 45rush yds

WR/TE Isaiah Mizell3 rec · 58 yds · 0.5 TD 58rec yds

WR/TE Tre Spivey3 rec · 54 yds · 0.6 TD 54rec yds

Road form. Iowa State is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 8.5 points a game.

Home form. Arizona is 3-0 at home, scoring 37.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ARIZ −9.5 and is now ARIZ −11.5, a 2-point move toward Arizona.

Rest. Iowa State comes in on 15 days’ rest, Arizona on 14.

Streak. Arizona has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Iowa StateArizona

3-3Record5-1

0-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home

L1StreakW4

15 daysRest14 days

29.7Points per game35.7

21.7Points allowed19.0

+48 Point differentialseason to date +100

178Passing yards / game304

182Rushing yards / game153

31%3rd-down conversion56%

8Takeaways5

0Sacks0

5Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Iowa State’s road games with Arizona’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.