Indiana vs Michigan Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
IU	3	3	0	0	7	13
MICH	0	0	3	3	0	6

Indiana vs Michigan picks

3 picks · Indiana by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

IU MLodds down −333 Won 94%

Indiana wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model78.6% SportsbooksOdds73.0% Edge+5.6

Spread

IU +1.5odds down −323 Won 86%

Indiana wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence86%

Model80.2% SportsbooksOdds71.5% Edge+8.7

Total

Over 34.5odds down −278 Lost 74%

The two teams score 35 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model77.3% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge+7.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Indiana714772135

Michigan070077

Most likely final scoresIU 35–7 MICH 0.7%IU 38–14 MICH 0.6%IU 35–14 MICH 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

IndianaMichigan

Offense

379▼ 212 Total yards ▼ 224305

230▼ 81 Passing yards ▼ 167190

149▼ 131 Rushing yards ▼ 57115

20▼ 11 First downs ▼ 1617

Scoring

4▼ 1 Touchdowns ▼ 01

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns = 00

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

2= 2 Field goals made ▲ 20

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

42▲ 50 Penalty yards ▼ 1551

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 305.5 Proj. 379 72% Lost · 212

Passing yards Over 172.5 Proj. 230 72% Lost · 81

Rushing yards Over 96.5 Proj. 149 72% Won · 131

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Lost · 11

Total yards Over 232.5 Proj. 305 72% Lost · 224

Passing yards Over 133.5 Proj. 190 72% Won · 167

Rushing yards Over 62.5 Proj. 115 72% Lost · 57

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 70% Won · 16

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Indiana

QB Josh Hoover17/27 · 217 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.0 INT 217pass yds

RB Turbo Richard12 carries · 69 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 69rush yds

WR/TE Charlie Becker6 rec · 96 yds · 0.8 TD 96rec yds

WR/TE Nick Marsh5 rec · 86 yds · 0.8 TD 86rec yds

Michigan

QB Bryce Underwood14/25 · 177 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.9 INT 177pass yds

RB Jordan Marshall11 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec 38rush yds

WR/TE JJ Buchanan5 rec · 92 yds · 0.0 TD 92rec yds

WR/TE Andrew Marsh6 rec · 55 yds · 0.0 TD 55rec yds

Road form. Indiana is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 17.5 points a game.

Home form. Michigan is 4-1 at home, scoring 24.4 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MICH +8.5 and is now MICH +7.5, a 1-point move toward Michigan.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

IndianaMichigan

6-1Record4-2

2-0 roadRoad / home4-1 home

L1StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

36.6Points per game22.7

12.9Points allowed16.2

+166 Point differentialseason to date +39

249Passing yards / game166

200Rushing yards / game148

46%3rd-down conversion41%

6Takeaways8

0Sacks0

3Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Indiana’s road games with Michigan’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.