Illinois vs UCLA Prediction & Picks

Illinois vs UCLA picks

3 picks · UCLA by 7 · 49 points

Moneyline

UCLA MLodds down −435 87%

UCLA wins the game.

Confidence87%

Model64.2% SportsbooksOdds75.0% Edge−10.8

Spread

ILL +9.5odds up +100 75%

Illinois wins, or loses by nine points or fewer.

Confidence75%

Model60.9% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+10.9

TotalBest pick

Over 46.5odds down −137 70%

The two teams score 47 or more points between them.

Confidence70%

Model57.6% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+7.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Illinois77071421

UCLA770141428

Most likely final scoresILL 21–28 UCLA 0.6%ILL 24–27 UCLA 0.6%ILL 24–31 UCLA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

IllinoisUCLA

Offense

334 Total yards 405

208 Passing yards 239

126 Rushing yards 166

18 First downs 20

Scoring

2 Touchdowns 3

1 Passing touchdowns 1

1 Rushing touchdowns 2

2 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

47 Penalty yards 58

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 261.5 Proj. 334 72%

Passing yards Over 150.5 Proj. 208 72%

Rushing yards Over 74.5 Proj. 126 72%

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 72%

Total yards Over 331.5 Proj. 405 72%

Passing yards Over 181.5 Proj. 239 72%

Rushing yards Over 113.5 Proj. 166 72%

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Illinois

QB Katin Houser16/29 · 193 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.9 INT 193pass yds

RB Aidan Laughery13 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 61rush yds

WR/TE Collin Dixon6 rec · 81 yds · 0.4 TD 81rec yds

WR/TE Hudson Clement4 rec · 65 yds · 0.1 TD 65rec yds

UCLA

QB Ty Dieffenbach17/26 · 205 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.3 INT 205pass yds

RB Wayne Knight13 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 3 rec 70rush yds

WR/TE Semaj Morgan5 rec · 55 yds · 0.0 TD 55rec yds

WR/TE Brian Rowe Jr.2 rec · 34 yds · 0.1 TD 34rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at UCLA −9.5 and is now UCLA −10.5, a 1-point move toward UCLA.

Rest. Illinois comes in on 7 days’ rest, UCLA on 6.

Streak. Illinois has won 4 in a row.

Streak. UCLA has won 9 in a row.

Tale of the tape

IllinoisUCLA

6-3Record9-0

W4StreakW9

7 daysRest6 days

28.4Points per game33.6

23.0Points allowed14.1

9th Big TenConference1st Big Ten

+49 Point differentialseason to date +175

237Passing yards / game219

155Rushing yards / game213

46%3rd-down conversion46%

6Takeaways27

0Sacks0

6Turnovers13

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Illinois’ road games with UCLA’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.