Illinois vs Maryland Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ILL	0	7	3	10	20
MD	7	0	7	3	17

Illinois vs Maryland picks

3 picks · Illinois by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

ILL MLodds down −145 Won 83%

Illinois wins the game.

Confidence83%

Model62.7% SportsbooksOdds55.2% Edge+7.5

SpreadBest pick

ILL +4.5odds down −256 Won 78%

Illinois wins, or loses by four points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model74.5% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+6.4

Total

Over 45.5odds down −263 Lost 74%

The two teams score 46 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.6% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+0.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Illinois77771428

Maryland014071421

Most likely final scoresILL 28–21 MD 0.6%ILL 27–24 MD 0.5%ILL 31–24 MD 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

IllinoisMaryland

Offense

379▲ 407 Total yards ▼ 288364

219▲ 223 Passing yards ▼ 190240

160▲ 184 Rushing yards ▼ 98124

22▼ 20 First downs ▼ 1720

Scoring

4▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 23

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 22

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

51▼ 15 Penalty yards ▼ 558

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 306.5 Proj. 379 72% Won · 407

Passing yards Over 161.5 Proj. 219 72% Won · 223

Rushing yards Over 107.5 Proj. 160 72% Won · 184

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74% Won · 20

Total yards Over 290.5 Proj. 364 72% Lost · 288

Passing yards Over 183.5 Proj. 240 72% Won · 190

Rushing yards Over 71.5 Proj. 124 72% Won · 98

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 69% Won · 17

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Illinois

QB Michael Clayton II9/14 · 102 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.0 INT 102pass yds

RB Aidan Laughery12 carries · 79 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec 79rush yds

WR/TE Collin Dixon7 rec · 92 yds · 1.2 TD 92rec yds

WR/TE Hudson Clement4 rec · 61 yds · 0.2 TD 61rec yds

Maryland

QB Malik Washington23/37 · 240 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 240pass yds

RB DeJuan Williams13 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 60rush yds

WR/TE Chris Durr Jr.8 rec · 90 yds · 0.5 TD 90rec yds

WR/TE Dorian Fleming3 rec · 31 yds · 0.3 TD 31rec yds

Road form. Illinois is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 11.0 points a game.

Home form. Maryland is 1-3 at home, scoring 30.3 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 54.5 and is now 53.5.

Rest. Illinois comes in on 7 days’ rest, Maryland on 14.

Streak. Maryland has lost 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

IllinoisMaryland

4-3Record2-5

1-1 roadRoad / home1-3 home

W2StreakL5

7 daysRest14 days

30.3Points per game28.3

25.3Points allowed33.3

+35 Point differentialseason to date −35

231Passing yards / game245

161Rushing yards / game133

46%3rd-down conversion34%

4Takeaways10

0Sacks0

5Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Illinois’ road games with Maryland’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.