Houston vs Utah Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
HOU	0	3	10	0	13
UTAH	0	0	7	14	21

Houston vs Utah picks

3 picks · Utah by 7 · 55 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

UTAH MLodds down −256 Won 94%

Utah wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model74.8% SportsbooksOdds68.2% Edge+6.6

SpreadBest pick

UTAH +2.5odds down −286 Won 79%

Utah wins, or loses by two points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model78.1% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+8.3

Total

Under 64.5odds up −213 Won 74%

The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model72.1% SportsbooksOdds68.6% Edge+3.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Houston770101424

Utah0171401731

Most likely final scoresHOU 24–31 UTAH 0.5%HOU 21–35 UTAH 0.5%HOU 24–27 UTAH 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

HoustonUtah

Offense

382▼ 368 Total yards ▼ 430436

231▲ 282 Passing yards ▼ 204273

151▼ 86 Rushing yards ▲ 226163

21▼ 17 First downs ▲ 2423

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns ▼ 34

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

1▲ 2 Field goals made ▼ 01

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

59▼ 40 Penalty yards ▼ 4758

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 308.5 Proj. 382 72% Won · 368

Passing yards Over 173.5 Proj. 231 72% Won · 282

Rushing yards Over 98.5 Proj. 151 72% Lost · 86

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 72% Lost · 17

Total yards Over 363.5 Proj. 436 72% Won · 430

Passing yards Over 216.5 Proj. 274 72% Lost · 204

Rushing yards Over 110.5 Proj. 163 72% Won · 226

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 70% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Houston

QB Conner Weigman18/31 · 218 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.8 INT 218pass yds

RB Re'Shaun Sanford II10 carries · 42 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 2 rec 42rush yds

WR/TE Patrick Overmyer5 rec · 52 yds · 0.7 TD 52rec yds

WR/TE Trent Walker4 rec · 50 yds · 0.2 TD 50rec yds

Utah

QB Devon Dampier19/30 · 242 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.8 INT 242pass yds

RB Wayshawn Parker13 carries · 74 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec 74rush yds

WR/TE Braden Pegan5 rec · 72 yds · 0.7 TD 72rec yds

WR/TE Creed Whittemore2 rec · 43 yds · 0.0 TD 43rec yds

Road form. Houston is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 10.3 points a game.

Home form. Utah is 4-0 at home, scoring 45.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UTAH −5.5 and is now UTAH −6.5, a 1-point move toward Utah.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Houston has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

HoustonUtah

6-1Record6-0

2-1 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W4StreakW6

7 daysRest7 days

39.3Points per game40.2

21.0Points allowed14.8

+128 Point differentialseason to date +152

265Passing yards / game266

220Rushing yards / game220

61%3rd-down conversion53%

10Takeaways9

0Sacks0

5Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Houston’s road games with Utah’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.