Moneyline
HOU MLodds down −526
Lost 88%
The Texans win the game.
Confidence88%
Model69.6%
SportsbooksOdds81.3%
Edge−11.7
New York Giants vs Houston Texans prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 25, 4:43 PM ET
Giants vs Texans picks
3 picks · Texans by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
NYG +9.5odds up −101
Won 70%
The Giants win, or lose by nine points or fewer.
Confidence70%
Model60.9%
SportsbooksOdds49.7%
Edge+11.2
TotalBest pick
Over 36.5−263
Won 77%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model71.9%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+2.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Giants73701017
Texans010371020
Most likely final scoresNYG 17–20 HOU 1.2%NYG 20–23 HOU 0.7%NYG 24–27 HOU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
GiantsTexans
Offense
310▲ 420
Total yards
▼ 237345
217▲ 232
Passing yards
▼ 153227
93▲ 188
Rushing yards
▼ 84118
19▲ 22
First downs
▼ 1520
Scoring
2▲ 4
Touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▲ 4
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
3= 3
Sacks allowed
▼ 12
54▼ 50
Penalty yards
▲ 8055
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 263.5
Proj. 310
72%
Won · 420
Passing yards
Over 175.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 232
Rushing yards
Over 64.5
Proj. 93
72%
Won · 188
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
69%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 298.5
Proj. 345
72%
Lost · 237
Passing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 227
72%
Lost · 153
Rushing yards
Over 90.5
Proj. 119
72%
Lost · 84
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
70%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Giants
QB
Jameis Winston19/31 · 181 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT
181pass yds
RB
Cameron Skattebo14 carries · 50 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec
50rush yds
WR/TE
Malik Nabers7 rec · 78 yds · 0.2 TD
78rec yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Likely7 rec · 61 yds · 0.5 TD
61rec yds
Texans
QB
C.J. Stroud21/33 · 227 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
227pass yds
RB
Jo'quavious Marks11 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
48rush yds
WR/TE
Nico Collins5 rec · 63 yds · 0.4 TD
63rec yds
WR/TE
Jaylin Noel3 rec · 47 yds · 0.2 TD
47rec yds
Road form. The Giants are 0-1-1 on the road this season, losing by 11.0 points a game.
Home form. The Texans are 0-3 at home, scoring 22.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at HOU −7.5 and is now HOU −10.5, a 3-point move toward the Texans.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
New York GiantsHouston Texans
New York GiantsHouston Texans
3-2-1Record2-4
0-1-1 roadRoad / home0-3 home
L1StreakW2
7 daysRest7 days
22.7Points per game24.0
23.3Points allowed23.8
−4
Point differentialseason to date
+1
5.0Yards per play5.7
229Passing yards / game270
105Rushing yards / game85
42%3rd-down conversion39%
61%Red-zone touchdowns57%
9Takeaways6
8Sacks20
11Turnovers3
4.2Yards per play5.7
218Passing yards / game302
78Rushing yards / game82
35%3rd-down conversion35%
60%Red-zone touchdowns55%
2Takeaways0
6Sacks10
3Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Giants’ road games with the Texans’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Giants
3-2-1
LWWTL
Wk 6Oct 18vs NO
Saints34Giants27
Saints moneyline −111Giants moneyline −109
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ WAS
Giants27Commanders27
Giants moneyline +146Commanders moneyline −182
TF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4vs ARI
Cardinals24Giants36
Cardinals moneyline −139Giants moneyline +110
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs TEN
Titans7Giants12
Titans moneyline +112Giants moneyline −141
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 21@ LAR
Giants6Rams28
Giants moneyline +235Rams moneyline −313
LFINAL
Texans
2-4
LLLWW
Wk 6Oct 18@ JAX
Texans34Jaguars31
Texans moneyline +122Jaguars moneyline −145
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ TEN
Texans26Titans3
Texans moneyline −333Titans moneyline +244
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DAL
Cowboys34Texans30
Cowboys moneyline +123Texans moneyline −152
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ IND
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs CIN
Bengals20Texans6
Bengals moneyline +120Texans moneyline −147
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
GIANTS
1
Wins
Avg. points24.0 – 16.0
Avg. total40.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
TEXANS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 10MetLife Stadium
Texans16Giants24
Texans moneyline +190Giants moneyline −227
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NYG)+390down +375
Moneyline (HOU)−526up −500
Spread (HOU)−7.5down −10.5
Total41.5up 43
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The New York Giants beat the Houston Texans 27–21 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET, at Reliant Stadium, Houston. The moneyline had the Giants at +375 and the Texans at −500.
Our model predicted a final score of Giants 17, Texans 20. Its picks: the Texans to win (−526), lost; the Giants +9.5 (−101), won; over 36.5 points (−263), won. The best pick was over 36.5 points, at 77% confidence.