Moneyline
WAS MLodds up −185
Push 51%
The Commanders win the game.
Confidence51%
Model50.2%
SportsbooksOdds63.4%
Edge−13.2
New York Giants vs Washington Commanders prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 3 | 0 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 27 |
| WAS | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
GIANTS 50%
Pre-game win chance
50% COMMANDERS
WAS by 3 · 51 points
Updated Oct 11, 5:04 PM ET
Giants vs Commanders picks
3 picks · Commanders by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
NYG +9.5odds down −263
Won 85%
The Giants win, or lose by nine points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model78.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.5%
Edge+10.4
TotalBest pick
Over 36odds up −238
Won 85%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them (exactly 36 is a push).
Confidence85%
Model75.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+5.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Giants37771024
Commanders0103141027
Most likely final scoresNYG 24–27 WAS 0.8%NYG 20–23 WAS 0.7%NYG 17–20 WAS 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
GiantsCommanders
Offense
317▲ 408
Total yards
▲ 378323
203▲ 305
Passing yards
▼ 176198
114▼ 103
Rushing yards
▲ 202125
19▲ 29
First downs
▲ 2019
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
= 33
2▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▲ 2
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
0▲ 2
Fumbles lost
= 00
2= 2
Sacks allowed
▲ 52
51▼ 35
Penalty yards
▲ 6953
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 270.5
Proj. 317
72%
Won · 408
Passing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 203
72%
Won · 305
Rushing yards
Over 85.5
Proj. 114
72%
Won · 103
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 29
Total yards
Over 276.5
Proj. 323
72%
Won · 378
Passing yards
Over 157.5
Proj. 198
72%
Won · 176
Rushing yards
Over 96.5
Proj. 125
72%
Won · 202
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Giants
QB
Jameis Winston18/29 · 203 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
203pass yds
RB
Cameron Skattebo16 carries · 60 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec
60rush yds
WR/TE
Malik Nabers5 rec · 61 yds · 0.3 TD
61rec yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Likely6 rec · 56 yds · 0.7 TD
56rec yds
Commanders
QB
Athan Kaliakmanis16/28 · 170 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
170pass yds
RB
Jacory Merritt13 carries · 39 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec
39rush yds
WR/TE
Stefon Diggs4 rec · 44 yds · 0.8 TD
44rec yds
WR/TE
Antonio Williams3 rec · 32 yds · 0.3 TD
32rec yds
Road form. The Giants are 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 22.0 points a game.
Home form. The Commanders are 1-1 at home, scoring 23.0 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two NFC East rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
The series. The Commanders have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Tale of the tape
New York GiantsWashington Commanders
New York GiantsWashington Commanders
3-1Record1-3
0-1 roadRoad / home1-1 home
W2StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
20.5Points per game22.0
19.8Points allowed30.5
+3
Point differentialseason to date
−34
4.7Yards per play4.8
173Passing yards / game191
111Rushing yards / game124
43%3rd-down conversion32%
55%Red-zone touchdowns55%
8Takeaways5
3Sacks7
5Turnovers2
3.3Yards per play4.6
130Passing yards / game197
52Rushing yards / game91
21%3rd-down conversion18%
0%Red-zone touchdowns40%
2Takeaways5
1Sacks2
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Giants’ road games with the Commanders’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Giants
3-1
WWLWW
Wk 4Oct 4vs ARI
Cardinals24Giants36
Cardinals moneyline −139Giants moneyline +110
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs TEN
Titans7Giants12
Titans moneyline +112Giants moneyline −141
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 21@ LAR
Giants6Rams28
Giants moneyline +235Rams moneyline −313
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs DAL
Cowboys20Giants28
Cowboys moneyline −167Giants moneyline +135
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026vs DAL
Cowboys17Giants34
Cowboys moneyline −172Giants moneyline +138
WFINAL
Commanders
1-3
WLLWL
Wk 4Oct 4vs IND
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs SEA
Seahawks31Commanders33
Seahawks moneyline −400Commanders moneyline +310
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ DAL
Commanders20Cowboys37
Commanders moneyline +170Cowboys moneyline −213
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ PHI
Commanders22Eagles24
Commanders moneyline +210Eagles moneyline −270
LFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ PHI
Commanders24Eagles17
Commanders moneyline +145Eagles moneyline −185
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
GIANTS
1
Wins
Avg. points19.6 – 23.4
Avg. total43.0 pts
Over closing total3 of 5
4
COMMANDERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 15MetLife Stadium
Commanders29Giants21
Commanders moneyline +125Giants moneyline −154
2025 · Wk 1Northwest Stadium
Giants6Commanders21
Giants moneyline +225Commanders moneyline −278
2024 · Wk 9MetLife Stadium
Commanders27Giants22
Commanders moneyline −213Giants moneyline +170
2024 · Wk 2Northwest Stadium
Giants18Commanders21
Giants moneyline +100Commanders moneyline −125
2023 · Wk 11FedExField
Giants31Commanders19
Giants moneyline +305Commanders moneyline −400
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NYG)+151down +146
Moneyline (WAS)−192up −182
Spread (WAS)−3.5−3.5
Total42down 41.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The New York Giants and the Washington Commanders tied 27–27 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at Northwest Stadium, Landover. The moneyline had the Giants at +146 and the Commanders at −182.
Our model predicted a final score of Giants 24, Commanders 27. Its picks: the Commanders to win (−185), push; the Giants +9.5 (−263), won; over 36 points (−238), won. The best pick was over 36 points, at 85% confidence.