Moneyline
APP MLodds down −256
Lost 80%
App State wins the game.
Confidence80%
Model61.0%
SportsbooksOdds61.7%
Edge−0.7
Georgia State vs Appalachian State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 10 | 16 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| APP | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
GEORGIA ST 39%
Pre-game win chance
61% APP STATE
APP by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 7, 5:53 PM ET
Georgia St vs App State picks
3 picks · App State by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
APP +3.5odds down −357
Lost 77%
App State wins, or loses by three points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model70.5%
SportsbooksOdds71.0%
Edge−0.5
Total
Over 48.5odds up −192
Won 74%
The two teams score 49 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model67.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge−1.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Georgia St0777721
App State0143111428
Most likely final scoresGAST 21–28 APP 0.6%GAST 28–31 APP 0.6%GAST 24–27 APP 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Georgia StApp State
Offense
404▼ 381
Total yards
▼ 356391
248▼ 115
Passing yards
▲ 297254
156▲ 266
Rushing yards
▼ 59137
21▼ 20
First downs
▼ 1821
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
= 33
2▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 02
0▲ 4
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
61▼ 55
Penalty yards
▼ 3554
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 330.5
Proj. 404
72%
Won · 381
Passing yards
Over 190.5
Proj. 248
72%
Lost · 115
Rushing yards
Over 103.5
Proj. 156
72%
Won · 266
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
70%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 317.5
Proj. 391
72%
Won · 356
Passing yards
Over 196.5
Proj. 254
72%
Won · 297
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 137
72%
Lost · 59
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
69%
Won · 18
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Georgia St
QB
Ayden Pereira8/14 · 87 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.4 INT
87pass yds
RB
Qwantavius Wiggins10 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 3 rec
62rush yds
WR/TE
Rodshaun Dorsey4 rec · 67 yds · 0.9 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
DJ Riles5 rec · 42 yds · 0.2 TD
42rec yds
App State
QB
Malachi Singleton18/29 · 231 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT
231pass yds
RB
Jaquari Lewis11 carries · 68 rush yds · 1.6 TD · 1 rec
68rush yds
WR/TE
Sam Pickett III4 rec · 68 yds · 0.3 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Nate Branch4 rec · 45 yds · 0.0 TD
45rec yds
Road form. Georgia St is 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 8.3 points a game.
Home form. App State is 3-1 at home, scoring 29.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at APP −3.5 and is now APP −6.5, a 3-point move toward App State.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two East rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Georgia StateAppalachian State
Georgia StateAppalachian State
4-4Record5-3
1-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home
L3StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
33.9Points per game26.8
26.6Points allowed22.6
+58
Point differentialseason to date
+33
239Passing yards / game263
200Rushing yards / game127
44%3rd-down conversion35%
9Takeaways12
0Sacks0
13Turnovers10
237Passing yards / game261
206Rushing yards / game141
41%3rd-down conversion31%
3Takeaways8
0Sacks0
9Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Georgia St’s road games with App State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Georgia St
4-4
WWLLL
Wk 9Oct 31vs CCU
Coastal31Georgia St20
Coastal moneyline +141Georgia St moneyline −185
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ ARST
Georgia St32Arkansas St38
Georgia St moneyline −141Arkansas St moneyline +108
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ JMU
Georgia St22James Madison49
Georgia St moneyline +275James Madison moneyline −370
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ODU
Old Dominion10Georgia St42
Old Dominion moneyline +100Georgia St moneyline −132
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs NIU
N Illinois14Georgia St35
N Illinois moneyline +255Georgia St moneyline −400
WFINAL
App State
5-3
LLWWL
Wk 9Oct 31@ GASO
App State3GA Southern19
App State moneyline +180GA Southern moneyline −250
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 22vs JMU
James Madison31App State34
James Madison moneyline −588App State moneyline +365
WF/OT
Wk 7Oct 16@ CCU
App State35Coastal32
App State moneyline −116Coastal moneyline −105
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs ODU
Old Dominion10App State3
Old Dominion moneyline +290App State moneyline −400
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ NCST
App State31NC State41
App State moneyline +370NC State moneyline −588
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
GEORGIA ST
0
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 41.0
Avg. total61.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
APP STATE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 7Center Parc Stadium
Georgia St20App State41
Georgia St moneyline −156App State moneyline +120
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (GAST)+190+190
Moneyline (APP)−263−263
Spread (APP)−3.5down −6.5
Total57.5down 53.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Georgia State beat Appalachian State 39–23 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 2:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Georgia State at +190 and Appalachian State at −263.
Our model predicted a final score of Georgia St 21, App State 28. Its picks: Appalachian State to win (−256), lost; Appalachian State +3.5 (−357), lost; over 48.5 points (−192), won. The best pick was Appalachian State +3.5, at 77% confidence.