Moneyline
GASO MLodds down −213
81%
GA Southern wins the game.
Confidence81%
Model61.7%
SportsbooksOdds64.8%
Edge−3.1
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State prediction, picks and odds
SpreadGASO −5.5
Total56.5 points
Kickoff in2d 23h
Updated 2:18 PM ET
GA Southern vs Georgia St picks
3 picks · GA Southern by 7 · 49 pointsSpread
GAST +12.5−250
79%
Georgia St wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model69.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge+1.4
TotalBest pick
Under 64.5−256
78%
The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.
Confidence78%
Model69.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+0.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
GA Southern77681428
Georgia St014071421
Most likely final scoresGASO 28–21 GAST 0.6%GASO 27–24 GAST 0.5%GASO 31–28 GAST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
GA SouthernGeorgia St
Offense
409
Total yards
385
273
Passing yards
212
136
Rushing yards
173
22
First downs
21
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
3
2
Passing touchdowns
2
2
Rushing touchdowns
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
60
Penalty yards
62
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 335.5
Proj. 409
72%
Passing yards
Over 216.5
Proj. 273
72%
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 136
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Total yards
Over 311.5
Proj. 385
72%
Passing yards
Over 154.5
Proj. 212
72%
Rushing yards
Over 120.5
Proj. 173
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
74%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
GA Southern
QB
Max Johnson20/29 · 230 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.3 INT
230pass yds
RB
Tyrese Woodgett9 carries · 43 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec
43rush yds
WR/TE
Alex Taylor5 rec · 75 yds · 0.6 TD
75rec yds
WR/TE
Josh Dallas4 rec · 44 yds · 0.0 TD
44rec yds
Georgia St
QB
Ayden Pereira10/17 · 110 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.5 INT
110pass yds
RB
Qwantavius Wiggins9 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
53rush yds
WR/TE
Rodshaun Dorsey3 rec · 62 yds · 0.8 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
DJ Riles4 rec · 37 yds · 0.3 TD
37rec yds
Total move. The total opened at 55.5 and is now 56.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two East rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Streak. GA Southern has won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Georgia SouthernGeorgia State
Georgia SouthernGeorgia State
5-4Record5-4
W3StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
26.6Points per game34.4
19.7Points allowed26.2
5th Sun BeltConference4th Sun Belt
+62
Point differentialseason to date
+74
283Passing yards / game225
125Rushing yards / game207
40%3rd-down conversion44%
14Takeaways12
0Sacks0
7Turnovers13
236Passing yards / game240
126Rushing yards / game194
36%3rd-down conversion47%
7Takeaways6
0Sacks0
3Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares GA Southern’s road games with Georgia St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
GA Southern
5-4
WLWWW
Wk 10Nov 7vs MRSH
Marshall13GA Southern49
Marshall moneyline +220GA Southern moneyline −286
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs APP
App State3GA Southern19
App State moneyline +180GA Southern moneyline −250
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 15@ ODU
GA Southern23Old Dominion15
GA Southern moneyline −175Old Dominion moneyline +143
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs JMU
James Madison27GA Southern24
James Madison moneyline −294GA Southern moneyline +230
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ CCU
GA Southern31Coastal24
GA Southern moneyline −143Coastal moneyline +107
WFINAL
Georgia St
5-4
WLLLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ APP
Georgia St39App State23
Georgia St moneyline +190App State moneyline −263
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs CCU
Coastal31Georgia St20
Coastal moneyline +141Georgia St moneyline −185
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ ARST
Georgia St32Arkansas St38
Georgia St moneyline −141Arkansas St moneyline +108
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ JMU
Georgia St22James Madison49
Georgia St moneyline +275James Madison moneyline −370
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ODU
Old Dominion10Georgia St42
Old Dominion moneyline +100Georgia St moneyline −132
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameSun Belt East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
GA SOUTHERN
1
Wins
Avg. points41.0 – 24.0
Avg. total65.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
GEORGIA ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 8Allen E. Paulson Stadium
GA Southern41Georgia St24
GA Southern moneyline +187Georgia St moneyline −256
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (GASO)−213−213
Moneyline (GAST)+170+170
Spread (GAST)+5.5+5.5
Total55.5up 56.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Georgia Southern visits Georgia State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET. Georgia Southern comes in at 5-4 and Georgia State at 5-4. The moneyline has Georgia Southern at −213 and Georgia State at +170.
Our model predicts a final score of GA Southern 28, Georgia St 21. Its picks: Georgia Southern to win (−213); Georgia State +12.5 (−250); under 64.5 points (−256). The best pick is under 64.5 points, at 78% confidence.