Moneyline
PITT ML−179
63%
Pitt wins the game.
Confidence63%
Model54.4%
SportsbooksOdds61.2%
Edge−6.8
Florida State vs Pittsburgh prediction, picks and odds
SpreadPITT −3.5
Total53.5 points
Kickoff in2d 3h
Updated 3:18 PM ET
Florida St vs Pitt picks
3 picks · Pitt by 3 · 59 pointsSpreadBest pick
FSU +11.5odds down −294
78%
Florida St wins, or loses by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model74.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+6.0
Total
Under 61.5odds up −250
74%
The two teams score 61 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model67.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge−1.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Florida St77771428
Pitt0141071431
Most likely final scoresFSU 28–31 PITT 0.6%FSU 24–31 PITT 0.5%FSU 21–28 PITT 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Florida StPitt
Offense
372
Total yards
405
255
Passing yards
234
117
Rushing yards
171
20
First downs
22
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
4
2
Passing touchdowns
2
2
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
55
Penalty yards
65
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 298.5
Proj. 372
72%
Passing yards
Over 197.5
Proj. 254
72%
Rushing yards
Over 64.5
Proj. 117
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Total yards
Over 331.5
Proj. 405
72%
Passing yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 234
72%
Rushing yards
Over 118.5
Proj. 171
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Florida St
QB
Ashton Daniels19/30 · 251 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.9 INT
251pass yds
RB
Tre Wisner9 carries · 31 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec
31rush yds
WR/TE
Micahi Danzy5 rec · 72 yds · 1.0 TD
72rec yds
WR/TE
Jasen Lopez3 rec · 32 yds · 0.2 TD
32rec yds
Pitt
QB
Holden Geriner12/22 · 134 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.5 INT
134pass yds
RB
Damon Ferguson Jr.15 carries · 82 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec
82rush yds
WR/TE
Cataurus Hicks4 rec · 71 yds · 0.7 TD
71rec yds
WR/TE
Carson Kent4 rec · 30 yds · 0.1 TD
30rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at PITT −4.5 and is now PITT −3.5, a 1-point move toward Florida St.
Rest. Florida St comes in on 6 days’ rest, Pitt on 13.
Tale of the tape
Florida StatePittsburgh
Florida StatePittsburgh
4-5Record6-3
W1StreakW1
6 daysRest13 days
30.7Points per game31.9
28.3Points allowed19.8
12th ACCConference6th ACC
+21
Point differentialseason to date
+109
241Passing yards / game278
169Rushing yards / game168
41%3rd-down conversion41%
8Takeaways13
0Sacks0
15Turnovers11
267Passing yards / game298
145Rushing yards / game190
48%3rd-down conversion46%
3Takeaways7
0Sacks0
7Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Florida St’s road games with Pitt’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Florida St
4-5
WLLLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ BC
Florida St31Boston College24
Florida St moneyline −227Boston College moneyline +180
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs CLEM
Clemson36Florida St24
Clemson moneyline +170Florida St moneyline −227
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ MIA
Florida St35Miami43
Florida St moneyline +628Miami moneyline −2000
LF/OT
Wk 6Oct 9@ LOU
Florida St20Louisville44
Florida St: no odds on recordLouisville: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs UVA
Virginia7Florida St38
Virginia moneyline −115Florida St moneyline −111
WFINAL
Pitt
6-3
WLLLW
Wk 9Oct 31vs GT
Georgia Tech11Pitt34
Georgia Tech moneyline +270Pitt moneyline −385
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ MIA
Pitt23Miami52
Pitt moneyline +1100Miami moneyline −2500
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ BC
Pitt21Boston College27
Pitt moneyline −250Boston College moneyline +190
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs UNC
North Carolina21Pitt17
North Carolina moneyline +143Pitt moneyline −179
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 2@ VT
Pitt35Virginia Tech33
Pitt moneyline +100Virginia Tech moneyline −133
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameACC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
FLORIDA ST
0
Wins
Avg. points31.0 – 34.0
Avg. total65.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
PITT
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 7Doak Campbell Stadium
Florida St31Pitt34
Florida St moneyline +300Pitt moneyline −435
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FSU)+148+148
Moneyline (PITT)−185−185
Spread (PITT)−4.5up −3.5
Total53.553.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Florida State visits Pittsburgh in college football Week 11, on Friday, November 13 at 7:00 PM ET. Florida State comes in at 4-5 and Pittsburgh at 6-3. The moneyline has Florida State at +148 and Pittsburgh at −185.
Our model predicts a final score of Florida St 28, Pitt 31. Its picks: Pittsburgh to win (−179); Florida State +11.5 (−294); under 61.5 points (−250). The best pick is Florida State +11.5, at 78% confidence.