Florida State vs Miami Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
FSU	0	14	7	7	7	35
MIA	7	7	0	14	15	43

Florida St vs Miami picks

3 picks · Miami by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

MIA MLodds up −1250 Won 95%

Miami wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model89.0% SportsbooksOdds92.9% Edge−3.9

Spread

FSU +28.5odds down −294 Won 80%

Florida St wins, or loses by 28 points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model70.2% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+0.4

TotalBest pick

Under 64.5odds up −256 Lost 81%

The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.

Confidence81%

Model74.6% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge+4.7

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Florida St007007

Miami7140142135

Most likely final scoresFSU 7–35 MIA 0.7%FSU 14–42 MIA 0.7%FSU 14–38 MIA 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Florida StMiami

Offense

326▲ 443 Total yards ▲ 583460

218▲ 305 Passing yards ▲ 326259

108▲ 138 Rushing yards ▲ 257201

18▲ 19 First downs ▲ 2625

Scoring

1▲ 5 Touchdowns ▲ 65

0▲ 4 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns = 33

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

58▼ 35 Penalty yards ▲ 6856

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 253.5 Proj. 326 72% Won · 443

Passing yards Over 161.5 Proj. 218 72% Won · 305

Rushing yards Over 55.5 Proj. 108 72% Won · 138

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Won · 19

Total yards Over 386.5 Proj. 460 72% Won · 583

Passing yards Over 201.5 Proj. 258 72% Won · 326

Rushing yards Over 149.5 Proj. 201 72% Won · 257

First downs Over 20.5 Proj. 25 74% Won · 26

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Florida St

QB Ashton Daniels18/31 · 216 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.8 INT 216pass yds

RB Ousmane Kromah14 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 54rush yds

WR/TE Jayvan Boggs3 rec · 49 yds · 0.0 TD 49rec yds

WR/TE Micahi Danzy4 rec · 48 yds · 0.0 TD 48rec yds

Miami

QB Darian Mensah18/25 · 222 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.0 INT 222pass yds

RB Mark Fletcher Jr.13 carries · 69 rush yds · 1.5 TD · 2 rec 69rush yds

WR/TE Malachi Toney6 rec · 93 yds · 0.7 TD 93rec yds

WR/TE Cooper Barkate3 rec · 37 yds · 0.4 TD 37rec yds

Road form. Florida St is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 19.0 points a game.

Home form. Miami is 2-0 at home, scoring 64.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MIA −22.5 and is now MIA −20.5, a 2-point move toward Florida St.

Rest. Florida St comes in on 8 days’ rest, Miami on 14.

Streak. Miami has won 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Florida StateMiami

3-3Record5-0

0-2 roadRoad / home2-0 home

L1StreakW5

8 daysRest14 days

31.0Points per game49.6

25.3Points allowed9.8

+34 Point differentialseason to date +199

222Passing yards / game334

187Rushing yards / game220

42%3rd-down conversion51%

5Takeaways6

0Sacks0

8Turnovers3

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Florida St’s road games with Miami’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.