Florida State vs Boston College Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FSU	0	21	0	10	31
BC	10	7	7	0	24

Florida St vs Boston College picks

3 picks · Florida St by 3 · 59 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

FSU MLodds up −250 Won 88%

Florida St wins the game.

Confidence88%

Model70.5% SportsbooksOdds70.7% Edge−0.2

Spread

FSU +1.5odds up −256 Won 81%

Florida St wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence81%

Model72.4% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge+1.9

Total

Over 45.5odds down −250 Won 74%

The two teams score 46 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model65.1% SportsbooksOdds67.1% Edge−2.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Florida St770171431

Boston College77681428

Most likely final scoresFSU 31–28 BC 0.6%FSU 28–21 BC 0.6%FSU 42–14 BC 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Florida StBoston College

Offense

395▼ 372 Total yards ▼ 320363

236▼ 178 Passing yards ▼ 172198

159▲ 194 Rushing yards ▼ 148165

21= 21 First downs = 2020

Scoring

4= 4 Touchdowns = 33

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▲ 21

2▲ 4 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

1= 1 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

2▼ 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

59▲ 68 Penalty yards ▼ 4564

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 322.5 Proj. 395 72% Won · 372

Passing yards Over 179.5 Proj. 237 72% Lost · 178

Rushing yards Over 106.5 Proj. 159 72% Won · 194

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 71% Won · 21

Total yards Over 289.5 Proj. 363 72% Won · 320

Passing yards Over 140.5 Proj. 198 72% Won · 172

Rushing yards Over 112.5 Proj. 165 72% Won · 148

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Florida St

QB Ashton Daniels17/28 · 233 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 1.0 INT 233pass yds

RB Ousmane Kromah16 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec 71rush yds

WR/TE Duce Robinson3 rec · 52 yds · 0.7 TD 52rec yds

WR/TE Tre Wisner3 rec · 36 yds · 0.2 TD 36rec yds

Boston College

QB Mason McKenzie16/26 · 189 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 189pass yds

RB Bo MacCormack III10 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 45rush yds

WR/TE Javarius Green4 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD 41rec yds

WR/TE Johnathan Montague Jr.2 rec · 36 yds · 0.2 TD 36rec yds

Road form. Florida St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 15.3 points a game.

Home form. Boston College is 3-1 at home, scoring 22.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at BC +7.5 and is now BC +6.5, a 1-point move toward Boston College.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Florida St has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Florida StateBoston College

3-5Record4-4

0-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L3StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

30.6Points per game21.6

28.9Points allowed26.5

+14 Point differentialseason to date −39

249Passing yards / game187

166Rushing yards / game168

39%3rd-down conversion35%

6Takeaways14

0Sacks0

14Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Florida St’s road games with Boston College’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.