Moneyline
LIB MLodds up −667
Won 94%
Liberty wins the game.
Confidence94%
Model75.5%
SportsbooksOdds85.8%
Edge−10.3
Florida International vs Liberty prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 31, 6:56 PM ET
FIU vs Liberty picks
3 picks · Liberty by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
FIU +21.5odds down −263
Lost 77%
FIU wins, or loses by 21 points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model73.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+4.1
Total
Over 39.5odds up −227
Won 74%
The two teams score 40 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+1.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
FIU77701421
Liberty77771428
Most likely final scoresFIU 21–28 LIB 0.5%FIU 14–28 LIB 0.5%FIU 27–30 LIB 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
FIULiberty
Offense
342▼ 210
Total yards
▼ 391398
212▼ 176
Passing yards
▲ 246193
130▼ 34
Rushing yards
▼ 145205
18▼ 15
First downs
▲ 2420
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
▲ 73
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 62
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
58▲ 75
Penalty yards
▼ 6067
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 269.5
Proj. 342
72%
Lost · 210
Passing yards
Over 155.5
Proj. 213
72%
Won · 176
Rushing yards
Over 77.5
Proj. 130
72%
Lost · 34
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 15
Total yards
Over 324.5
Proj. 398
72%
Won · 391
Passing yards
Over 136.5
Proj. 193
72%
Won · 246
Rushing yards
Over 152.5
Proj. 204
72%
Lost · 145
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
FIU
QB
J.J. Kohl17/30 · 195 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.9 INT
195pass yds
RB
Devonte Lyons12 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Maguire Anderson5 rec · 70 yds · 0.4 TD
70rec yds
WR/TE
James Resar3 rec · 28 yds · 0.0 TD
28rec yds
Liberty
QB
Deshawn Purdie13/21 · 173 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.0 INT
173pass yds
RB
Kam Davis10 carries · 74 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Makai Jackson4 rec · 81 yds · 0.4 TD
81rec yds
WR/TE
Jamari Person3 rec · 33 yds · 0.2 TD
33rec yds
Road form. FIU is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 6.3 points a game.
Home form. Liberty is 3-0 at home, scoring 36.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at LIB −12.5 and is now LIB −13.5, a 1-point move toward Liberty.
Rest. FIU comes in on 11 days’ rest, Liberty on 9.
Streak. Liberty has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Florida InternationalLiberty
Florida InternationalLiberty
3-4Record6-1
0-3 roadRoad / home3-0 home
L2StreakW6
11 daysRest9 days
20.1Points per game31.6
16.3Points allowed14.0
+27
Point differentialseason to date
+123
251Passing yards / game192
127Rushing yards / game222
46%3rd-down conversion43%
8Takeaways10
0Sacks0
10Turnovers5
281Passing yards / game183
100Rushing yards / game234
43%3rd-down conversion50%
1Takeaways4
0Sacks0
6Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares FIU’s road games with Liberty’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
FIU
3-4
LWWLL
Wk 8Oct 20vs MTSU
MTSU26FIU23
MTSU moneyline +300FIU moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 13@ JVST
FIU24Jax State27
FIU moneyline +113Jax State moneyline −154
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7vs NMSU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs LI
Long Island3FIU20
Long Island: no odds on recordFIU: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ FAU
FIU10FAU16
FIU moneyline +163FAU moneyline −222
LFINAL
Liberty
6-1
WWWWW
Wk 8Oct 22@ KENN
Liberty34Kennesaw St6
Liberty moneyline −417Kennesaw St moneyline +290
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8vs SHSU
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 2@ DEL
Liberty30Delaware14
Liberty moneyline −294Delaware moneyline +210
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 24@ CCU
Liberty34Coastal17
Liberty moneyline −145Coastal moneyline +110
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs BALL
Ball State15Liberty51
Ball State moneyline +480Liberty moneyline −833
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
FIU
1
Wins
Avg. points34.0 – 27.0
Avg. total61.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
LIBERTY
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 12FIU home
Liberty27FIU34
Liberty moneyline −143FIU moneyline +110
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FIU)+450+450
Moneyline (LIB)−769−769
Spread (LIB)−12.5down −13.5
Total45.545.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Liberty beat Florida International 49–10 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Florida International at +450 and Liberty at −769.
Our model predicted a final score of FIU 21, Liberty 28. Its picks: Liberty to win (−667), won; Florida International +21.5 (−263), lost; over 39.5 points (−227), won. The best pick was Florida International +21.5, at 77% confidence.