MoneylineBest pick
JVST MLodds up −156
Won 68%
Jax State wins the game.
Confidence68%
Model58.9%
SportsbooksOdds58.2%
Edge+0.7
Florida International vs Jacksonville State prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 13, 11:39 PM ET
FIU vs Jax State picks
3 picks · Jax State by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
FIU +3.5odds down −147
Won 53%
FIU wins, or loses by three points or fewer.
Confidence53%
Model51.3%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+0.4
Total
Over 44.5odds up −115
Won 68%
The two teams score 45 or more points between them.
Confidence68%
Model59.1%
SportsbooksOdds54.2%
Edge+4.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
FIU140071421
Jax State017071724
Most likely final scoresFIU 21–24 JVST 0.6%FIU 28–31 JVST 0.5%FIU 24–27 JVST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
FIUJax State
Offense
362▲ 404
Total yards
▲ 387372
218▲ 280
Passing yards
▼ 214219
144▼ 124
Rushing yards
▲ 173153
20▲ 21
First downs
▼ 1920
Scoring
2▲ 3
Touchdowns
= 33
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
0= 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
60▲ 100
Penalty yards
▲ 8055
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 289.5
Proj. 362
72%
Won · 404
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 218
72%
Won · 280
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 145
72%
Won · 124
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 298.5
Proj. 372
72%
Won · 387
Passing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 219
72%
Won · 214
Rushing yards
Over 100.5
Proj. 153
72%
Won · 173
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
FIU
QB
J.J. Kohl17/29 · 198 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.9 INT
198pass yds
RB
Anthony Carrie15 carries · 56 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
56rush yds
WR/TE
Maguire Anderson5 rec · 67 yds · 0.3 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
James Resar3 rec · 28 yds · 0.5 TD
28rec yds
Jax State
QB
Caden Creel17/29 · 212 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
212pass yds
RB
Jalen Likely9 carries · 43 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
43rush yds
WR/TE
Deondre Johnson3 rec · 50 yds · 0.4 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Darius Cannon3 rec · 25 yds · 0.0 TD
25rec yds
Road form. FIU is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 8.0 points a game.
Home form. Jax State is 3-0 at home, scoring 34.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at JVST −3.5 and is now JVST −2.5, a 1-point move toward FIU.
Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.
Streak. Jax State has won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Florida InternationalJacksonville State
Florida InternationalJacksonville State
3-2Record4-2
0-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W2StreakW3
6 daysRest6 days
18.8Points per game27.3
12.2Points allowed22.5
+33
Point differentialseason to date
+29
259Passing yards / game245
119Rushing yards / game146
45%3rd-down conversion49%
7Takeaways6
0Sacks0
9Turnovers9
282Passing yards / game262
88Rushing yards / game186
39%3rd-down conversion52%
0Takeaways3
0Sacks0
6Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares FIU’s road games with Jax State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
FIU
3-2
LWLWW
Wk 6Oct 7vs NMSU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs LI
Long Island3FIU20
Long Island: no odds on recordFIU: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ FAU
FIU10FAU16
FIU moneyline +163FAU moneyline −222
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs BUFF
Buffalo20FIU33
Buffalo moneyline +270FIU moneyline −400
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5@ USF
FIU9South Florida19
FIU moneyline +460South Florida moneyline −833
LFINAL
Jax State
4-2
WLWWW
Wk 6Oct 7@ KENN
Jax State27Kennesaw St26
Jax State moneyline −154Kennesaw St moneyline +119
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MTSU
MTSU13Jax State23
MTSU moneyline +220Jax State moneyline −323
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs GASO
GA Southern27Jax State31
GA Southern moneyline +137Jax State moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ OHIO
Jax State27Ohio29
Jax State moneyline +102Ohio moneyline −130
LF/OT
Wk 1Sep 5vs EK
E Kentucky7Jax State49
E Kentucky moneyline +830Jax State moneyline −2500
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
FIU
1
Wins
Avg. points27.0 – 21.0
Avg. total48.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
JAX STATE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 13FIU home
Jax State21FIU27
Jax State moneyline +100FIU moneyline −132
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FIU)+113+113
Moneyline (JVST)−154−154
Spread (JVST)−3.5up −2.5
Total45.5down 44.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Jacksonville State beat Florida International 27–24 in college football Week 7, on Tuesday, October 13 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Florida International at +113 and Jacksonville State at −154.
Our model predicted a final score of FIU 21, Jax State 24. Its picks: Jacksonville State to win (−156), won; Florida International +3.5 (−147), won; over 44.5 points (−115), won. The best pick was Jacksonville State to win, at 68% confidence.