Moneyline
TLSA ML−213
93%
Tulsa wins the game.
Confidence93%
Model68.4%
SportsbooksOdds65.5%
Edge+2.9
Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa prediction, picks and odds
Updated 2:18 PM ET
FAU vs Tulsa picks
3 picks · Tulsa by 3 · 59 pointsSpreadBest pick
TLSA +2.5−263
77%
Tulsa wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model72.2%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+3.0
Total
Under 83.5odds up −250
74%
The two teams score 83 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model62.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge−6.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
FAU77771428
Tulsa710771731
Most likely final scoresFAU 28–31 TLSA 0.6%FAU 35–38 TLSA 0.5%FAU 24–31 TLSA 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
FAUTulsa
Offense
392
Total yards
436
231
Passing yards
228
161
Rushing yards
208
22
First downs
21
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
4
2
Passing touchdowns
2
2
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
51
Penalty yards
49
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 319.5
Proj. 392
72%
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Rushing yards
Over 109.5
Proj. 162
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Total yards
Over 363.5
Proj. 436
72%
Passing yards
Over 170.5
Proj. 228
72%
Rushing yards
Over 156.5
Proj. 209
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
73%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
FAU
QB
Caden Veltkamp20/29 · 217 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT
217pass yds
RB
Leonard Farrow12 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
61rush yds
WR/TE
Easton Messer7 rec · 74 yds · 0.9 TD
74rec yds
WR/TE
Kelby Valsin5 rec · 65 yds · 0.4 TD
65rec yds
Tulsa
QB
Baylor Hayes19/30 · 226 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.6 INT
226pass yds
RB
Damari Alston16 carries · 73 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
73rush yds
WR/TE
Oran Singleton7 rec · 83 yds · 0.7 TD
83rec yds
WR/TE
Jimmy Calloway4 rec · 39 yds · 0.4 TD
39rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at TLSA −4.5 and is now TLSA −5.5, a 1-point move toward Tulsa.
Rest. FAU comes in on 9 days’ rest, Tulsa on 7.
Tale of the tape
Florida AtlanticTulsa
Florida AtlanticTulsa
6-3Record5-4
W1StreakW1
9 daysRest7 days
40.2Points per game33.1
35.0Points allowed22.8
5th AmericanConference6th American
+47
Point differentialseason to date
+93
318Passing yards / game226
130Rushing yards / game165
52%3rd-down conversion35%
13Takeaways17
0Sacks0
9Turnovers5
346Passing yards / game216
133Rushing yards / game177
57%3rd-down conversion28%
3Takeaways8
0Sacks0
8Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares FAU’s road games with Tulsa’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
FAU
6-3
WLWLW
Wk 10Nov 5vs UTSA
UTSA29FAU60
UTSA moneyline −345FAU moneyline +260
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 29@ UNT
FAU41North Texas48
FAU moneyline +390North Texas moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs RICE
Rice49FAU51
Rice moneyline +280FAU moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ARMY
FAU24Army56
FAU moneyline +102Army moneyline −125
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TS
Texas Southern10FAU66
Texas Southern moneyline +1000FAU: no odds on record
WFINAL
Tulsa
5-4
LLWLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ TULN
Tulsa60Tulane10
Tulsa moneyline −147Tulane moneyline +117
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 23vs ARMY
Army38Tulsa35
Army moneyline −125Tulsa moneyline −106
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ RICE
Tulsa38Rice17
Tulsa moneyline −200Rice moneyline +160
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ NAVY
Tulsa26Navy34
Tulsa moneyline +117Navy moneyline −159
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1vs UNT
North Texas45Tulsa44
North Texas moneyline −149Tulsa moneyline +117
LF/OT
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameAmerican
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
FAU
1
Wins
Avg. points40.0 – 21.0
Avg. total61.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
TULSA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 11FAU home
Tulsa21FAU40
Tulsa moneyline +145FAU moneyline −196
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FAU)+170+170
Moneyline (TLSA)−213−213
Spread (TLSA)−4.5down −5.5
Total72.5up 74.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Florida Atlantic visits Tulsa in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET. Florida Atlantic comes in at 6-3 and Tulsa at 5-4. The moneyline has Florida Atlantic at +170 and Tulsa at −213.
Our model predicts a final score of FAU 28, Tulsa 31. Its picks: Tulsa to win (−213); Tulsa +2.5 (−263); under 83.5 points (−250). The best pick is Tulsa +2.5, at 77% confidence.