Florida Atlantic vs North Texas Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FAU	10	14	7	10	41
UNT	3	21	17	7	48

FAU vs North Texas picks

3 picks · North Texas by 28 · 62 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

UNT MLodds down −625 Won 95%

North Texas wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model85.7% SportsbooksOdds81.1% Edge+4.6

SpreadBest pick

UNT −4.5odds down −303 Won 78%

North Texas wins by five points or more.

Confidence78%

Model76.8% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+7.5

Total

Under 81.5odds up −156 Lost 74%

The two teams score 81 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model76.4% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+8.1

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

FAU010071017

North Texas3142171745

Most likely final scoresFAU 17–45 UNT 0.5%FAU 24–31 UNT 0.4%FAU 20–48 UNT 0.4%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

FAUNorth Texas

Offense

375▲ 523 Total yards ▲ 644511

241▲ 452 Passing yards ▲ 404254

134▼ 71 Rushing yards ▼ 240257

22▲ 29 First downs ▲ 3123

Scoring

2▲ 5 Touchdowns = 66

1▲ 5 Passing touchdowns ▲ 42

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 24

1▲ 2 Field goals made ▲ 21

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▲ 21

0 Sacks allowed 0

49▲ 58 Penalty yards ▲ 6059

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 301.5 Proj. 375 72% Won · 523

Passing yards Over 183.5 Proj. 241 72% Won · 452

Rushing yards Over 81.5 Proj. 134 72% Lost · 71

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74% Won · 29

Total yards Over 438.5 Proj. 511 72% Won · 644

Passing yards Over 196.5 Proj. 254 72% Won · 404

Rushing yards Over 204.5 Proj. 257 72% Won · 240

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 70% Won · 31

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

FAU

QB Caden Veltkamp20/30 · 228 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 228pass yds

RB Leonard Farrow9 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec 53rush yds

WR/TE Easton Messer6 rec · 79 yds · 0.4 TD 79rec yds

WR/TE Kelby Valsin6 rec · 74 yds · 0.3 TD 74rec yds

North Texas

QB Tayven Jackson17/25 · 231 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 231pass yds

RB Jahiem White20 carries · 183 rush yds · 2.7 TD · 2 rec 183rush yds

WR/TE Justin Stevenson5 rec · 72 yds · 0.7 TD 72rec yds

WR/TE Kyle Koch3 rec · 33 yds · 0.4 TD 33rec yds

Road form. FAU is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 16.3 points a game.

Home form. North Texas is 3-0 at home, scoring 52.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UNT −13.5 and is now UNT −15.5, a 2-point move toward North Texas.

Rest. Both teams come in on 5 days’ rest.

Streak. North Texas has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Florida AtlanticNorth Texas

5-2Record5-2

1-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W1StreakW4

5 daysRest5 days

37.3Points per game43.1

34.0Points allowed30.6

+23 Point differentialseason to date +88

312Passing yards / game340

109Rushing yards / game180

52%3rd-down conversion48%

9Takeaways10

0Sacks0

7Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares FAU’s road games with North Texas’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.