East Carolina vs UAB Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
ECU	7	7	0	3	0	17
UAB	0	3	6	8	13	30

East Carolina vs UAB picks

3 picks · East Carolina by 28 · 56 points · 0 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

ECU ML−217 Lost 88%

East Carolina wins the game.

Confidence88%

Model71.2% SportsbooksOdds65.6% Edge+5.6

Spread

ECU −4.5−118 Lost 74%

East Carolina wins by five points or more.

Confidence74%

Model59.0% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+9.0

Total

Over 48.5odds up −120 Lost 74%

The two teams score 49 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model61.1% SportsbooksOdds51.7% Edge+9.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

East Carolina1477142142

UAB0707714

Most likely final scoresECU 42–14 UAB 0.6%ECU 28–21 UAB 0.6%ECU 35–28 UAB 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

East CarolinaUAB

Offense

372▼ 311 Total yards ▲ 361339

184▼ 126 Passing yards ▲ 262182

188▼ 185 Rushing yards ▼ 99157

20▲ 21 First downs = 1919

Scoring

5▼ 2 Touchdowns ▲ 32

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▲ 21

3▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

2▼ 1 Field goals made ▲ 30

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▼ 02

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▼ 30 Penalty yards ▲ 6355

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 299.5 Proj. 372 72% Won · 311

Passing yards Over 127.5 Proj. 184 72% Lost · 126

Rushing yards Over 135.5 Proj. 188 72% Won · 185

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 21

Total yards Over 266.5 Proj. 339 72% Won · 361

Passing yards Over 124.5 Proj. 182 72% Won · 262

Rushing yards Over 105.5 Proj. 157 72% Lost · 99

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 73% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

East Carolina

QB Emory Williams11/17 · 131 pass yds · 1.4 TD · 0.3 INT 131pass yds

RB TJ Engleman11 carries · 98 rush yds · 1.8 TD · 1 rec 98rush yds

WR/TE Ray Ray Joseph4 rec · 50 yds · 0.4 TD 50rec yds

WR/TE Michael Allen2 rec · 6 yds · 0.3 TD 6rec yds

UAB

QB Ryder Burton15/25 · 179 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.9 INT 179pass yds

RB Roderick Robinson II15 carries · 59 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 59rush yds

WR/TE Tiaquelin Mims3 rec · 59 yds · 0.3 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE C.J. Smith2 rec · 45 yds · 0.3 TD 45rec yds

Road form. East Carolina is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 17.5 points a game.

Home form. UAB is 3-0 at home, scoring 27.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UAB +5.5 and is now UAB +4.5, a 1-point move toward UAB.

Rest. Both teams come in on 5 days’ rest.

Streak. East Carolina has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

East CarolinaUAB

3-2Record3-3

1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W3StreakL1

5 daysRest5 days

24.8Points per game22.2

22.6Points allowed25.8

+11 Point differentialseason to date −22

195Passing yards / game156

149Rushing yards / game180

27%3rd-down conversion43%

8Takeaways8

0Sacks0

8Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares East Carolina’s road games with UAB’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.