East Carolina vs Memphis Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
ECU	10	6	8	10	0	34
MEM	0	3	17	14	7	41

East Carolina vs Memphis picks

3 picks · Memphis by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

MEM MLodds down −455 Won 91%

Memphis wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model69.3% SportsbooksOdds79.1% Edge−9.8

Spread

ECU +17.5odds up −227 Won 81%

East Carolina wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.

Confidence81%

Model71.4% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+1.6

Total

Under 62.5odds up −233 Lost 74%

The two teams score 62 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.9% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+3.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

East Carolina0777721

Memphis010771024

Most likely final scoresECU 21–24 MEM 0.6%ECU 28–31 MEM 0.5%ECU 14–21 MEM 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

East CarolinaMemphis

Offense

352▲ 421 Total yards ▲ 484423

189▲ 260 Passing yards ▲ 320239

163▼ 161 Rushing yards ▼ 164184

18▲ 22 First downs ▲ 2422

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▲ 53

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

1▲ 2 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

0▲ 4 Field goals made ▲ 21

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers = 11

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

58▼ 23 Penalty yards ▲ 7652

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 279.5 Proj. 352 72% Won · 421

Passing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 189 72% Won · 260

Rushing yards Over 111.5 Proj. 164 72% Won · 161

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 69% Won · 22

Total yards Over 349.5 Proj. 423 72% Won · 484

Passing yards Over 181.5 Proj. 239 72% Won · 320

Rushing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 184 72% Won · 164

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 73% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

East Carolina

QB Emory Williams13/20 · 142 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT 142pass yds

RB TJ Engleman13 carries · 86 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 86rush yds

WR/TE Ray Ray Joseph4 rec · 47 yds · 0.5 TD 47rec yds

WR/TE Jason Dickerson1 rec · 20 yds · 0.2 TD 20rec yds

Memphis

QB Marcus Stokes17/28 · 227 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 227pass yds

RB Jaylin Carter16 carries · 86 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 86rush yds

WR/TE Braylon Burnside3 rec · 53 yds · 0.2 TD 53rec yds

WR/TE Jermane Hayes4 rec · 36 yds · 0.2 TD 36rec yds

Road form. East Carolina is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 16.0 points a game.

Home form. Memphis is 3-0 at home, scoring 41.7 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 52.5 and is now 55.5.

Rest. East Carolina comes in on 7 days’ rest, Memphis on 6.

Tale of the tape

East CarolinaMemphis

3-3Record5-2

1-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home

L1StreakL1

7 daysRest6 days

23.5Points per game35.4

23.8Points allowed22.3

−2 Point differentialseason to date +92

184Passing yards / game275

155Rushing yards / game237

31%3rd-down conversion45%

8Takeaways13

0Sacks0

10Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares East Carolina’s road games with Memphis’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.