Moneyline
ECU MLodds down −500
95%
East Carolina wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model83.4%
SportsbooksOdds80.0%
Edge+3.4
East Carolina vs Charlotte prediction, picks and odds
SpreadECU −11.5
Total45.5 points
Kickoff in2d 21h
Updated 3:17 PM ET
East Carolina vs Charlotte picks
3 picks · East Carolina by 28 · 42 pointsSpreadBest pick
ECU −4.5−250
78%
East Carolina wins by five points or more.
Confidence78%
Model73.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+5.6
Total
Over 38.5−238
74%
The two teams score 39 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model74.4%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+7.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
East Carolina771471435
Charlotte700077
Most likely final scoresECU 35–7 CLT 0.9%ECU 42–14 CLT 0.6%ECU 28–21 CLT 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
East CarolinaCharlotte
Offense
419
Total yards
306
230
Passing yards
192
189
Rushing yards
114
22
First downs
16
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
1
2
Passing touchdowns
1
2
Rushing touchdowns
0
2
Field goals made
0
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
48
Penalty yards
49
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 346.5
Proj. 419
72%
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Rushing yards
Over 136.5
Proj. 189
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 23
74%
Total yards
Over 233.5
Proj. 306
72%
Passing yards
Over 134.5
Proj. 192
72%
Rushing yards
Over 61.5
Proj. 114
72%
First downs
Over 12.5
Proj. 17
73%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
East Carolina
QB
Emory Williams17/25 · 179 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.4 INT
179pass yds
RB
Ashton Gray11 carries · 46 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
46rush yds
WR/TE
Landon Sides6 rec · 68 yds · 0.6 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Ray Ray Joseph5 rec · 58 yds · 0.6 TD
58rec yds
Charlotte
QB
Conner Harrell16/26 · 179 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.5 INT
179pass yds
RB
Henry Rutledge12 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
71rush yds
WR/TE
Jaden Barnes6 rec · 61 yds · 0.3 TD
61rec yds
WR/TE
Derrick Eley3 rec · 55 yds · 0.5 TD
55rec yds
Rest. East Carolina comes in on 8 days’ rest, Charlotte on 7.
Tale of the tape
East CarolinaCharlotte
East CarolinaCharlotte
5-4Record1-8
W2StreakL2
8 daysRest7 days
23.6Points per game19.7
23.3Points allowed38.3
8th AmericanConference14th American
+2
Point differentialseason to date
−168
191Passing yards / game201
161Rushing yards / game117
32%3rd-down conversion32%
12Takeaways10
0Sacks0
15Turnovers16
162Passing yards / game187
130Rushing yards / game148
29%3rd-down conversion39%
4Takeaways3
0Sacks0
7Turnovers10
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares East Carolina’s road games with Charlotte’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
East Carolina
5-4
WLLWW
Wk 10Nov 6vs USF
South Florida17East Carolina20
South Florida moneyline −110East Carolina moneyline −112
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs TEM
Temple9East Carolina17
Temple moneyline +151East Carolina moneyline −204
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 22@ MEM
East Carolina34Memphis41
East Carolina moneyline +350Memphis moneyline −526
LF/OT
Wk 7Oct 15@ UAB
East Carolina17UAB30
East Carolina moneyline −222UAB moneyline +175
LF/OT
Wk 6Oct 10vs RICE
Rice12East Carolina28
Rice moneyline +270East Carolina moneyline −357
WFINAL
Charlotte
1-8
LLWLL
Wk 10Nov 7@ UAB
Charlotte12UAB23
Charlotte moneyline +275UAB moneyline −370
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 30vs TULN
Tulane38Charlotte31
Tulane moneyline −370Charlotte moneyline +265
LF/OT
Wk 7Oct 17@ TEM
Charlotte38Temple31
Charlotte moneyline +750Temple moneyline −1429
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ UNT
Charlotte10North Texas50
Charlotte moneyline +940North Texas moneyline −5000
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs MEM
Memphis59Charlotte8
Memphis moneyline −1667Charlotte moneyline +660
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameAmerican
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
EAST CAROLINA
1
Wins
Avg. points48.0 – 22.0
Avg. total70.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
CHARLOTTE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 11East Carolina home
Charlotte22East Carolina48
Charlotte moneyline +1200East Carolina moneyline −10000
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ECU)−500−500
Moneyline (CLT)+350+350
Spread (CLT)+11.5+11.5
Total45.545.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
East Carolina visits Charlotte in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 1:00 PM ET. East Carolina comes in at 5-4 and Charlotte at 1-8. The moneyline has East Carolina at −500 and Charlotte at +350.
Our model predicts a final score of East Carolina 35, Charlotte 7. Its picks: East Carolina to win (−500); East Carolina −4.5 (−250); over 38.5 points (−238). The best pick is East Carolina −4.5, at 78% confidence.