Duke vs Virginia Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DUKE	7	0	3	9	19
UVA	7	6	0	3	16

Duke vs Virginia picks

3 picks · Virginia by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

UVA MLodds down −141 Lost 58%

Virginia wins the game.

Confidence58%

Model52.5% SportsbooksOdds53.0% Edge−0.5

Spread

UVA +5.5odds down −286 Won 78%

Virginia wins, or loses by five points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model67.0% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge−2.2

TotalBest pick

Over 39.5odds up −263 Lost 79%

The two teams score 40 or more points between them.

Confidence79%

Model71.9% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge+1.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Duke0777721

Virginia014771428

Most likely final scoresDUKE 21–28 UVA 0.7%DUKE 14–28 UVA 0.6%DUKE 21–24 UVA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line

DukeVirginia

Offense

377▼ 327 Total yards = 353353

211▲ 256 Passing yards ▼ 158218

166▼ 71 Rushing yards ▲ 195135

20▼ 16 First downs ▲ 2220

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 13

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0▲ 2 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

60▼ 47 Penalty yards ▼ 3058

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 304.5 Proj. 378 72% Won · 327

Passing yards Over 153.5 Proj. 211 72% Won · 256

Rushing yards Over 114.5 Proj. 167 72% Lost · 71

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Lost · 16

Total yards Over 279.5 Proj. 353 72% Won · 353

Passing yards Over 160.5 Proj. 218 72% Lost · 158

Rushing yards Over 82.5 Proj. 135 72% Won · 195

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 22

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Duke

QB Walker Eget17/28 · 185 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.7 INT 185pass yds

RB Nate Sheppard22 carries · 109 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 4 rec 109rush yds

WR/TE Jeremiah Hasley3 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD 38rec yds

WR/TE Jared Richardson2 rec · 33 yds · 0.3 TD 33rec yds

Virginia

QB Beau Pribula16/25 · 180 pass yds · 1.5 TD · 0.6 INT 180pass yds

RB Jekail Middlebrook10 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 53rush yds

WR/TE Dashawn Martin2 rec · 31 yds · 0.5 TD 31rec yds

WR/TE John Rogers3 rec · 26 yds · 0.5 TD 26rec yds

Road form. Duke is 1-1 on the road this season.

Home form. Virginia is 4-1 at home, scoring 38.0 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 48.5 and is now 47.5.

Rest. Both teams come in on 6 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

DukeVirginia

4-2Record4-3

1-1 roadRoad / home4-1 home

L2StreakL1

6 daysRest6 days

31.7Points per game30.0

16.0Points allowed19.7

+94 Point differentialseason to date +72

233Passing yards / game206

210Rushing yards / game157

47%3rd-down conversion33%

5Takeaways8

0Sacks0

3Turnovers3

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Duke’s road games with Virginia’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.