Duke vs NC State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DUKE	7	24	7	3	41
NCST	3	0	0	0	3

Duke vs NC State picks

3 picks · Duke by 3 · 51 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

DUKE MLodds up −192 Won 66%

Duke wins the game.

Confidence66%

Model55.5% SportsbooksOdds64.8% Edge−9.3

SpreadBest pick

NCST +11.5odds up −250 Lost 78%

NC State wins, or loses by 11 points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model73.8% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+4.6

Total

Over 44.5odds down −286 Lost 74%

The two teams score 45 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.1% SportsbooksOdds67.6% Edge+3.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Duke377101027

NC State010771024

Most likely final scoresDUKE 27–24 NCST 0.6%DUKE 31–28 NCST 0.6%DUKE 28–21 NCST 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

DukeNC State

Offense

387▲ 461 Total yards ▼ 217369

246▼ 223 Passing yards ▼ 185231

141▲ 238 Rushing yards ▼ 32138

20▲ 26 First downs ▼ 1220

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns ▼ 03

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

1▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

2= 2 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

63▼ 35 Penalty yards ▼ 3961

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 314.5 Proj. 387 72% Won · 461

Passing yards Over 188.5 Proj. 246 72% Won · 223

Rushing yards Over 88.5 Proj. 141 72% Won · 238

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 26

Total yards Over 295.5 Proj. 369 72% Lost · 217

Passing yards Over 173.5 Proj. 231 72% Won · 185

Rushing yards Over 85.5 Proj. 138 72% Lost · 32

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74% Lost · 12

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Duke

QB Walker Eget18/29 · 207 pass yds · 1.2 TD · 0.5 INT 207pass yds

RB Nate Sheppard18 carries · 80 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 4 rec 80rush yds

WR/TE Jared Richardson3 rec · 36 yds · 0.4 TD 36rec yds

WR/TE Jonah Burton2 rec · 29 yds · 0.0 TD 29rec yds

NC State

QB CJ Bailey19/30 · 230 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT 230pass yds

RB Davion Gause13 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 3 rec 57rush yds

WR/TE Keenan Jackson4 rec · 54 yds · 0.5 TD 54rec yds

WR/TE Victor Snow2 rec · 24 yds · 0.0 TD 24rec yds

Road form. Duke is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.3 points a game.

Home form. NC State is 4-1 at home, scoring 38.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at NCST +5.5 and is now NCST +4.5, a 1-point move toward NC State.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

DukeNC State

6-2Record4-4

2-1 roadRoad / home4-1 home

W2StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

32.0Points per game32.1

14.3Points allowed25.9

+142 Point differentialseason to date +50

236Passing yards / game249

185Rushing yards / game159

44%3rd-down conversion52%

9Takeaways9

0Sacks0

5Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Duke’s road games with NC State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.