Duke vs Miami Prediction & Picks

Duke vs Miami picks

3 picks · Miami by 28 · 42 points

Moneyline

MIA MLodds up −625 95%

Miami wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model79.7% SportsbooksOdds85.8% Edge−6.1

SpreadBest pick

MIA −5.5−256 76%

Miami wins by six points or more.

Confidence76%

Model67.4% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge−1.3

Total

Under 61.5odds up −238 74%

The two teams score 61 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.0% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge−0.7

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Duke070077

Miami0147141435

Most likely final scoresDUKE 7–35 MIA 0.6%DUKE 14–38 MIA 0.5%DUKE 21–28 MIA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line

DukeMiami

Offense

340 Total yards 427

239 Passing yards 273

101 Rushing yards 154

19 First downs 23

Scoring

1 Touchdowns 4

1 Passing touchdowns 2

0 Rushing touchdowns 2

0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

58 Penalty yards 60

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 266.5 Proj. 340 72%

Passing yards Over 182.5 Proj. 239 72%

Rushing yards Over 48.5 Proj. 101 72%

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 70%

Total yards Over 353.5 Proj. 427 72%

Passing yards Over 215.5 Proj. 273 72%

Rushing yards Over 101.5 Proj. 154 72%

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 70%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Duke

QB Walker Eget19/29 · 199 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.4 INT 199pass yds

RB Nate Sheppard16 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 4 rec 65rush yds

WR/TE Jaivon Solomon3 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD 41rec yds

WR/TE Jonah Burton3 rec · 35 yds · 0.0 TD 35rec yds

Miami

QB Darian Mensah22/31 · 268 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 268pass yds

RB Mark Fletcher Jr.14 carries · 54 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 1 rec 54rush yds

WR/TE Malachi Toney8 rec · 100 yds · 1.1 TD 100rec yds

WR/TE Cooper Barkate4 rec · 57 yds · 0.5 TD 57rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at MIA −15.5 and is now MIA −13.5, a 2-point move toward Duke.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Duke has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

DukeMiami

7-2Record8-1

W3StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

33.0Points per game45.0

13.0Points allowed19.2

3rd ACCConference2nd ACC

+180 Point differentialseason to date +232

235Passing yards / game329

191Rushing yards / game191

42%3rd-down conversion53%

9Takeaways10

0Sacks0

5Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Duke’s road games with Miami’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.