Moneyline
NYJ MLodds up −204
Lost 58%
The Jets win the game.
Confidence58%
Model54.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.4%
Edge−14.1
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 25, 4:12 PM ET
Dolphins vs Jets picks
3 picks · Jets by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
MIA +10.5odds down −303
Won 82%
The Dolphins win, or lose by 10 points or fewer.
Confidence82%
Model78.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+10.0
TotalBest pick
Over 33.5odds up −233
Won 77%
The two teams score 34 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model74.5%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+7.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Dolphins0737717
Jets710031720
Most likely final scoresMIA 17–20 NYJ 1.0%MIA 20–23 NYJ 0.8%MIA 24–27 NYJ 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
DolphinsJets
Offense
317▲ 360
Total yards
▲ 377311
182▲ 204
Passing yards
▲ 269202
135▲ 156
Rushing yards
▼ 108109
19▲ 24
First downs
= 1919
Scoring
2▲ 4
Touchdowns
▲ 32
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2= 2
Sacks allowed
= 22
50▼ 26
Penalty yards
▼ 3654
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 270.5
Proj. 317
72%
Won · 360
Passing yards
Over 140.5
Proj. 182
72%
Won · 204
Rushing yards
Over 106.5
Proj. 135
72%
Won · 156
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 264.5
Proj. 311
72%
Won · 377
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 202
72%
Won · 269
Rushing yards
Over 80.5
Proj. 109
72%
Won · 108
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
75%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Dolphins
QB
Malik Willis18/29 · 182 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
182pass yds
RB
Ollie Gordon12 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec
57rush yds
WR/TE
Malik Washington6 rec · 62 yds · 0.0 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
Greg Dulcich4 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD
33rec yds
Jets
QB
Geno Smith21/30 · 202 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
202pass yds
RB
Braelon Allen13 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
60rush yds
WR/TE
Garrett Wilson6 rec · 72 yds · 0.4 TD
72rec yds
WR/TE
Mason Taylor3 rec · 19 yds · 0.0 TD
19rec yds
Road form. The Dolphins are 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 13.7 points a game.
Home form. The Jets are 1-1 at home, scoring 17.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NYJ −4.5 and is now NYJ −3.5, a 1-point move toward the Dolphins.
Rest. The Dolphins come in on 14 days’ rest, the Jets on 7.
Division game. Two AFC East rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Miami DolphinsNew York Jets
Miami DolphinsNew York Jets
0-5Record2-4
0-3 roadRoad / home1-1 home
L5StreakL1
14 daysRest7 days
14.0Points per game18.7
26.4Points allowed20.3
−62
Point differentialseason to date
−10
5.1Yards per play4.9
154Passing yards / game196
127Rushing yards / game95
41%3rd-down conversion35%
46%Red-zone touchdowns38%
4Takeaways8
4Sacks17
8Turnovers4
5.2Yards per play4.1
148Passing yards / game180
99Rushing yards / game101
32%3rd-down conversion44%
29%Red-zone touchdowns40%
2Takeaways3
4Sacks11
3Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Dolphins’ road games with the Jets’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Dolphins
0-5
LLLLL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CIN
Bengals31Dolphins24
Bengals moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +267
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ MIN
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs KC
Chiefs24Dolphins10
Chiefs moneyline −625Dolphins moneyline +440
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ SF
Dolphins1349ers35
Dolphins moneyline +56049ers moneyline −909
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ LV
Dolphins13Raiders27
Dolphins moneyline +133Raiders moneyline −169
LFINAL
Jets
2-4
LLLWL
Wk 6Oct 18@ NE
Jets19Patriots26
Jets moneyline +280Patriots moneyline −357
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CLE
Browns12Jets17
Browns moneyline +121Jets moneyline −149
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CHI
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ DET
Jets24Lions31
Jets moneyline +240Lions moneyline −323
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs GB
Packers20Jets17
Packers moneyline −182Jets moneyline +147
LF/OT
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this game
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
DOLPHINS
4
Wins
Avg. points28.6 – 17.8
Avg. total46.4 pts
Over closing total4 of 5
1
JETS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 14MetLife Stadium
Dolphins34Jets10
Dolphins moneyline −147Jets moneyline +120
2025 · Wk 4Hard Rock Stadium
Jets21Dolphins27
Jets moneyline +123Dolphins moneyline −154
2024 · Wk 18MetLife Stadium
Dolphins20Jets32
Dolphins moneyline +114Jets moneyline −149
2024 · Wk 14Hard Rock Stadium
Jets26Dolphins32
Jets moneyline +235Dolphins moneyline −313
2023 · Wk 15Hard Rock Stadium
Jets0Dolphins30
Jets moneyline +285Dolphins moneyline −370
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MIA)+180down +175
Moneyline (NYJ)−222up −208
Spread (NYJ)−4.5up −3.5
Total38.5up 39.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets 28–25 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford. The moneyline had the Dolphins at +175 and the Jets at −208.
Our model predicted a final score of Dolphins 17, Jets 20. Its picks: the Jets to win (−204), lost; the Dolphins +10.5 (−303), won; over 33.5 points (−233), won. The best pick was over 33.5 points, at 77% confidence.