Delaware vs Middle Tennessee Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
DEL	3	13	7	7	30
MTSU	5	7	14	7	33

Delaware vs MTSU picks

3 picks · Delaware by 3 · 59 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

DEL MLodds down −127 Lost 64%

Delaware wins the game.

Confidence64%

Model56.7% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+6.7

SpreadBest pick

DEL +1.5odds down −141 Lost 68%

Delaware wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence68%

Model58.9% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+8.9

Total

Over 46.5odds down −152 Won 79%

The two teams score 47 or more points between them.

Confidence79%

Model64.5% SportsbooksOdds54.0% Edge+10.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Delaware0211002131

MTSU021702128

Most likely final scoresDEL 31–28 MTSU 0.7%DEL 28–21 MTSU 0.6%DEL 27–24 MTSU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

DelawareMTSU

Offense

414▼ 391 Total yards ▲ 396373

250▲ 321 Passing yards ▲ 291235

164▼ 70 Rushing yards ▼ 105138

22= 22 First downs ▲ 2220

Scoring

4= 4 Touchdowns ▲ 43

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 11

1= 1 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

50▲ 101 Penalty yards ▼ 4558

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 341.5 Proj. 414 72% Won · 391

Passing yards Over 193.5 Proj. 250 72% Won · 321

Rushing yards Over 112.5 Proj. 164 72% Lost · 70

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 69% Won · 22

Total yards Over 300.5 Proj. 373 72% Won · 396

Passing yards Over 178.5 Proj. 235 72% Won · 291

Rushing yards Over 85.5 Proj. 138 72% Won · 105

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73% Won · 22

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Delaware

QB EJ Archield Jr.11/17 · 133 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT 133pass yds

RB Jo'Nathan Silver12 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 70rush yds

WR/TE Sean Wilson5 rec · 58 yds · 0.8 TD 58rec yds

WR/TE Da'Wain Lofton4 rec · 55 yds · 0.3 TD 55rec yds

MTSU

QB Roman Gagliano20/34 · 235 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 235pass yds

RB Antonio Martin18 carries · 86 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 86rush yds

WR/TE Cam'Ron Lacy7 rec · 86 yds · 1.0 TD 86rec yds

WR/TE Terrence Brown Jr.3 rec · 18 yds · 0.0 TD 18rec yds

Road form. Delaware is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 24.0 points a game.

Home form. MTSU is 2-0 at home, scoring 32.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MTSU −1.5 and is now MTSU +1.5, a 3-point move toward Delaware.

Rest. Delaware comes in on 11 days’ rest, MTSU on 10.

Tale of the tape

DelawareMiddle Tennessee

2-3Record2-3

0-2 roadRoad / home2-0 home

L2StreakL2

11 daysRest10 days

21.4Points per game20.8

25.6Points allowed28.0

−21 Point differentialseason to date −36

261Passing yards / game183

99Rushing yards / game124

30%3rd-down conversion27%

6Takeaways7

0Sacks0

7Turnovers2

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Delaware’s road games with MTSU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.