Moneyline
GB MLodds up −108
Won 62%
The Packers win the game.
Confidence62%
Model55.9%
SportsbooksOdds51.0%
Edge+4.9
Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 19, 12:00 AM ET
Cowboys vs Packers picks
3 picks · Packers by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
GB +5.5odds up −238
Won 79%
The Packers win, or lose by five points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model73.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+4.9
TotalBest pick
Under 59.5odds up −222
Won 77%
The two teams score 59 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model76.4%
SportsbooksOdds70.0%
Edge+6.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Cowboys013701320
Packers013371323
Most likely final scoresDAL 20–23 GB 0.8%DAL 17–20 GB 0.7%DAL 27–30 GB 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
CowboysPackers
Offense
345▼ 303
Total yards
▼ 318367
231▲ 255
Passing yards
▲ 261250
114▼ 48
Rushing yards
▼ 57117
22▲ 24
First downs
= 2020
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▼ 23
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
2▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 31
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2▼ 1
Sacks allowed
▲ 32
52▲ 108
Penalty yards
▲ 9656
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 298.5
Proj. 345
72%
Won · 303
Passing yards
Over 189.5
Proj. 231
72%
Won · 255
Rushing yards
Over 85.5
Proj. 114
72%
Lost · 48
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
74%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 320.5
Proj. 367
72%
Lost · 318
Passing yards
Over 208.5
Proj. 250
72%
Won · 261
Rushing yards
Over 88.5
Proj. 117
72%
Lost · 57
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Cowboys
QB
Dak Prescott23/35 · 231 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
231pass yds
RB
Javonte Williams19 carries · 77 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec
77rush yds
WR/TE
CeeDee Lamb7 rec · 87 yds · 0.4 TD
87rec yds
WR/TE
George Pickens5 rec · 61 yds · 0.1 TD
61rec yds
Packers
QB
Jordan Love21/31 · 250 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT
250pass yds
RB
MarShawn Lloyd11 carries · 43 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec
43rush yds
WR/TE
Christian Watson5 rec · 87 yds · 1.2 TD
87rec yds
WR/TE
Tucker Kraft4 rec · 39 yds · 0.2 TD
39rec yds
Road form. The Cowboys are 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 2.0 points a game.
Home form. The Packers are 1-1 at home, scoring 22.5 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 49.5 and is now 53.5.
Rest. The Cowboys come in on 10 days’ rest, the Packers on 7.
The series. The Packers have won 2 of the last 3 meetings (1 tie).
Tale of the tape
Dallas CowboysGreen Bay Packers
Dallas CowboysGreen Bay Packers
2-3Record3-2
1-1 roadRoad / home1-1 home
L1StreakW2
10 daysRest7 days
27.6Points per game20.8
27.2Points allowed22.4
+2
Point differentialseason to date
−8
5.8Yards per play5.6
270Passing yards / game271
82Rushing yards / game60
49%3rd-down conversion28%
83%Red-zone touchdowns50%
2Takeaways9
5Sacks14
5Turnovers6
5.1Yards per play6.2
250Passing yards / game335
72Rushing yards / game44
52%3rd-down conversion37%
100%Red-zone touchdowns57%
1Takeaways6
4Sacks4
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Cowboys’ road games with the Packers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Cowboys
2-3
LWLWL
Wk 5Oct 8vs TB
Buccaneers24Cowboys16
Buccaneers moneyline +370Cowboys moneyline −526
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ HOU
Cowboys34Texans30
Cowboys moneyline +123Texans moneyline −152
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs BAL
Ravens34Cowboys31
Ravens moneyline −182Cowboys moneyline +150
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs WAS
Commanders20Cowboys37
Commanders moneyline +170Cowboys moneyline −213
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ NYG
Cowboys20Giants28
Cowboys moneyline −167Giants moneyline +135
LFINAL
Packers
3-2
LWLWW
Wk 5Oct 11vs CHI
Bears7Packers31
Bears moneyline −122Packers moneyline +100
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ TB
Packers17Buccaneers14
Packers moneyline −156Buccaneers moneyline +130
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 24vs ATL
Falcons35Packers14
Falcons moneyline +205Packers moneyline −263
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ NYJ
Packers20Jets17
Packers moneyline −182Jets moneyline +147
WF/OT
Wk 1Sep 13@ MIN
Packers22Vikings39
Packers moneyline +111Vikings moneyline −139
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last three meetings · regular season and playoffs
COWBOYS
0
Wins
Avg. points33.3 – 39.7
Avg. total73.0 pts
Over closing total3 of 3
2
PACKERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 4AT&T Stadium
Packers40Cowboys40
Packers moneyline −345Cowboys moneyline +255
2023 · Wild CardAT&T Stadium
Packers48Cowboys32
Packers moneyline +275Cowboys moneyline −345
2022 · Wk 10Lambeau Field
Cowboys28Packers31
Cowboys moneyline −192Packers moneyline +155
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (DAL)−111down −115
Moneyline (GB)−109up −105
Spread (GB)+1.5+1.5
Total49.5up 53.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Green Bay Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys 23–13 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season (Sunday Night Football on NBC), on Sunday, October 18 at 8:20 PM ET, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay. The moneyline had the Cowboys at −115 and the Packers at −105.
Our model predicted a final score of Cowboys 20, Packers 23. Its picks: the Packers to win (−108), won; the Packers +5.5 (−238), won; under 59.5 points (−222), won. The best pick was under 59.5 points, at 77% confidence.