MoneylineBest pick
MIN MLodds down −333
Won 82%
The Vikings win the game.
Confidence82%
Model65.9%
SportsbooksOdds71.7%
Edge−5.8
Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 25, 3:57 PM ET
Colts vs Vikings picks
3 picks · Vikings by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
IND +12.5odds up −244
Won 76%
The Colts win, or lose by 12 points or fewer.
Confidence76%
Model70.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+1.7
Total
Over 36odds down −263
Lost 77%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them (exactly 36 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model72.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+3.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Colts0737717
Vikings0100101020
Most likely final scoresIND 17–20 MIN 0.9%IND 24–27 MIN 0.8%IND 17–24 MIN 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ColtsVikings
Offense
284▼ 218
Total yards
▼ 275317
180▼ 64
Passing yards
▼ 139199
104▲ 154
Rushing yards
▲ 136118
17▼ 15
First downs
▼ 1718
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 12
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
3▲ 4
Sacks allowed
▲ 32
51▼ 46
Penalty yards
▼ 2452
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 237.5
Proj. 284
72%
Lost · 218
Passing yards
Over 138.5
Proj. 180
72%
Lost · 64
Rushing yards
Over 75.5
Proj. 104
72%
Won · 154
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 17
70%
Won · 15
Total yards
Over 270.5
Proj. 317
72%
Won · 275
Passing yards
Over 157.5
Proj. 199
72%
Lost · 139
Rushing yards
Over 89.5
Proj. 118
72%
Won · 136
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
75%
Won · 17
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Colts
QB
Daniel Jones18/32 · 180 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
180pass yds
RB
Jonathan Taylor19 carries · 76 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
76rush yds
WR/TE
Tyler Warren5 rec · 40 yds · 0.7 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
Keenan Allen4 rec · 38 yds · 0.3 TD
38rec yds
Vikings
QB
Kyler Murray16/25 · 186 pass yds · 0.4 TD · 0.7 INT
186pass yds
RB
Aaron Jones18 carries · 84 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
84rush yds
WR/TE
Jordan Addison3 rec · 52 yds · 0.3 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
T.J. Hockenson5 rec · 48 yds · 0.2 TD
48rec yds
Road form. The Colts are 1-2 on the road this season.
Home form. The Vikings are 2-0 at home, scoring 27.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MIN −4.5 and is now MIN −6.5, a 2-point move toward the Vikings.
Rest. The Colts come in on 7 days’ rest, the Vikings on 14.
Streak. The Vikings have won 5 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Indianapolis ColtsMinnesota Vikings
Indianapolis ColtsMinnesota Vikings
2-4Record5-0
1-2 roadRoad / home2-0 home
L2StreakW5
7 daysRest14 days
24.0Points per game21.8
27.3Points allowed12.8
−20
Point differentialseason to date
+45
4.7Yards per play4.6
200Passing yards / game167
112Rushing yards / game116
37%3rd-down conversion38%
63%Red-zone touchdowns50%
3Takeaways10
10Sacks17
11Turnovers4
4.6Yards per play4.3
202Passing yards / game173
104Rushing yards / game115
33%3rd-down conversion48%
67%Red-zone touchdowns57%
1Takeaways3
5Sacks6
3Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Colts’ road games with the Vikings’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Colts
2-4
LWWLL
Wk 6Oct 18vs TEN
Titans26Colts20
Titans moneyline +240Colts moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ PIT
Colts22Steelers34
Colts moneyline +131Steelers moneyline −161
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ WAS
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs HOU
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ KC
Colts30Chiefs33
Colts moneyline +215Chiefs moneyline −294
LF/OT
Vikings
5-0
WWWWW
Wk 5Oct 11@ NO
Vikings23Saints13
Vikings moneyline −141Saints moneyline +115
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs MIA
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ TB
Vikings23Buccaneers16
Vikings moneyline −116Buccaneers moneyline −105
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ CHI
Vikings9Bears3
Vikings moneyline +175Bears moneyline −222
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs GB
Packers22Vikings39
Packers moneyline +111Vikings moneyline −139
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC South
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
COLTS
0
Wins
Avg. points24.5 – 30.0
Avg. total54.5 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
2
VIKINGS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2024 · Wk 9U.S. Bank Stadium
Colts13Vikings21
Colts moneyline +200Vikings moneyline −278
2022 · Wk 15U.S. Bank Stadium
Colts36Vikings39
Colts moneyline +160Vikings moneyline −189
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (IND)+260up +270
Moneyline (MIN)−323down −345
Spread (MIN)−4.5down −6.5
Total43.5down 41.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Minnesota Vikings beat the Indianapolis Colts 16–10 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 25 at 1:00 PM ET, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis. The moneyline had the Colts at +270 and the Vikings at −345.
Our model predicted a final score of Colts 17, Vikings 20. Its picks: the Vikings to win (−333), won; the Colts +12.5 (−244), won; over 36 points (−263), lost. The best pick was the Vikings to win, at 82% confidence.