Moneyline
IND MLodds up +129
Lost 52%
The Colts win the game.
Confidence52%
Model50.8%
SportsbooksOdds42.8%
Edge+8.0
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 4:19 PM ET
Colts vs Steelers picks
3 picks · Colts by 3 · 43 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
IND +7.5odds up −256
Lost 85%
The Colts win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model76.7%
SportsbooksOdds71.5%
Edge+5.2
Total
Over 37.5odds up −200
Won 85%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence85%
Model71.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+2.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Colts06314623
Steelers0101001020
Most likely final scoresIND 23–20 PIT 0.9%IND 30–27 PIT 0.6%IND 27–20 PIT 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ColtsSteelers
Offense
315▲ 332
Total yards
▲ 352347
205▲ 266
Passing yards
▼ 225236
110▼ 66
Rushing yards
▲ 127111
19= 19
First downs
▼ 1620
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▲ 42
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 5
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
0= 0
Fumbles lost
= 00
2▼ 1
Sacks allowed
▼ 12
49▲ 59
Penalty yards
▼ 5051
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 268.5
Proj. 315
72%
Won · 332
Passing yards
Over 164.5
Proj. 206
72%
Won · 266
Rushing yards
Over 81.5
Proj. 110
72%
Lost · 66
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
75%
Won · 19
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 347
72%
Won · 352
Passing yards
Over 194.5
Proj. 236
72%
Won · 225
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 112
72%
Won · 127
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
69%
Lost · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Colts
QB
Daniel Jones21/32 · 205 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
205pass yds
RB
Jonathan Taylor20 carries · 88 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec
88rush yds
WR/TE
Josh Downs4 rec · 59 yds · 0.0 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Tyler Warren6 rec · 38 yds · 1.3 TD
38rec yds
Steelers
QB
Aaron Rodgers22/35 · 236 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
236pass yds
RB
Jaylen Warren16 carries · 91 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec
91rush yds
WR/TE
DK Metcalf4 rec · 56 yds · 0.1 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Roman Wilson3 rec · 50 yds · 0.3 TD
50rec yds
Road form. The Colts are 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 7.0 points a game.
Home form. The Steelers are 2-0 at home, scoring 25.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 44.5 and is now 41.5.
Rest. The Colts come in on 7 days’ rest, the Steelers on 10.
Tale of the tape
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh Steelers
2-2Record2-2
1-1 roadRoad / home2-0 home
W2StreakL1
7 daysRest10 days
25.5Points per game19.3
26.0Points allowed21.8
−2
Point differentialseason to date
−10
4.5Yards per play5.0
175Passing yards / game223
110Rushing yards / game95
38%3rd-down conversion32%
75%Red-zone touchdowns44%
2Takeaways8
9Sacks10
8Turnovers6
4.5Yards per play5.5
170Passing yards / game240
124Rushing yards / game98
36%3rd-down conversion40%
83%Red-zone touchdowns40%
1Takeaways4
4Sacks5
3Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Colts’ road games with the Steelers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Colts
2-2
LLLWW
Wk 4Oct 4@ WAS
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs HOU
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ KC
Colts30Chiefs33
Colts moneyline +215Chiefs moneyline −294
LF/OT
Wk 1Sep 13vs BAL
Ravens41Colts23
Ravens moneyline −161Colts moneyline +133
LFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ HOU
Colts30Texans38
Colts moneyline +400Texans moneyline −588
LFINAL
Steelers
2-2
LWLWL
Wk 4Oct 1@ CLE
Steelers24Browns27
Steelers moneyline −154Browns moneyline +125
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs CIN
Bengals27Steelers30
Bengals moneyline −182Steelers moneyline +150
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ NE
Steelers3Patriots20
Steelers moneyline +185Patriots moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs ATL
Falcons13Steelers20
Falcons moneyline +235Steelers moneyline −303
WFINAL
Wild CardJan 12, 2026vs HOU
Texans30Steelers6
Texans moneyline −154Steelers moneyline +126
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC South
Head-to-head
Last four meetings · regular season and playoffs
COLTS
2
Wins
Avg. points23.5 – 22.0
Avg. total45.5 pts
Over closing total3 of 4
2
STEELERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Acrisure Stadium
Colts20Steelers27
Colts moneyline −172Steelers moneyline +137
2024 · Wk 4Lucas Oil Stadium
Steelers24Colts27
Steelers moneyline −147Colts moneyline +115
2023 · Wk 15Lucas Oil Stadium
Steelers13Colts30
Steelers moneyline +102Colts moneyline −120
2022 · Wk 12Lucas Oil Stadium
Steelers24Colts17
Steelers moneyline +111Colts moneyline −137
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (IND)+129up +131
Moneyline (PIT)−159down −161
Spread (PIT)−2.5−2.5
Total44.5down 41.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Indianapolis Colts 34–22 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh. The moneyline had the Colts at +131 and the Steelers at −161.
Our model predicted a final score of Colts 23, Steelers 20. Its picks: the Colts to win (+129), lost; the Colts +7.5 (−256), lost; over 37.5 points (−200), won. The best pick was the Colts +7.5, at 85% confidence.