Cincinnati vs West Virginia Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CIN	7	14	7	14	42
WVU	0	14	7	24	45

Cincinnati vs West Virginia picks

3 picks · Cincinnati by 3 · 59 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

CIN MLodds down −104 Lost 58%

Cincinnati wins the game.

Confidence58%

Model52.6% SportsbooksOdds46.8% Edge+5.8

SpreadBest pick

CIN +7.5−294 Won 78%

Cincinnati wins, or loses by seven points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model73.7% SportsbooksOdds71.5% Edge+2.2

Total

Under 72.5odds down −303 Lost 74%

The two teams score 72 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model81.8% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+12.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Cincinnati147372131

West Virginia77771428

Most likely final scoresCIN 31–28 WVU 0.6%CIN 35–28 WVU 0.5%CIN 31–24 WVU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

CincinnatiWest Virginia

Offense

421▲ 622 Total yards ▲ 598437

242▲ 389 Passing yards ▲ 464216

179▲ 233 Rushing yards ▼ 134221

20▲ 28 First downs ▲ 2723

Scoring

4▲ 6 Touchdowns ▲ 64

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▲ 31

2▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 33

1▼ 0 Field goals made ▲ 10

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

61▼ 49 Penalty yards ▼ 3153

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 347.5 Proj. 421 72% Won · 622

Passing yards Over 185.5 Proj. 242 72% Won · 389

Rushing yards Over 126.5 Proj. 179 72% Won · 233

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Won · 28

Total yards Over 363.5 Proj. 437 72% Won · 598

Passing yards Over 159.5 Proj. 216 72% Won · 464

Rushing yards Over 168.5 Proj. 221 72% Lost · 134

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 71% Won · 27

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Cincinnati

QB JC French18/27 · 233 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT 233pass yds

RB Gi'Bran Payne11 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec 61rush yds

WR/TE JaVonnie Gibson4 rec · 78 yds · 1.0 TD 78rec yds

WR/TE Isaiah Johnson4 rec · 35 yds · 0.0 TD 35rec yds

West Virginia

QB Michael Hawkins Jr.15/27 · 206 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT 206pass yds

RB Cam Cook20 carries · 99 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec 99rush yds

WR/TE DJ Epps4 rec · 96 yds · 0.5 TD 96rec yds

WR/TE Prince Strachan4 rec · 62 yds · 0.0 TD 62rec yds

Road form. Cincinnati is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 27.0 points a game.

Home form. West Virginia is 2-2 at home, scoring 34.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at WVU −2.5 and is now WVU −1.5, a 1-point move toward Cincinnati.

Rest. Cincinnati comes in on 14 days’ rest, West Virginia on 7.

Streak. West Virginia has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

CincinnatiWest Virginia

4-1Record3-3

0-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home

L1StreakL3

14 daysRest7 days

33.8Points per game36.3

23.2Points allowed32.7

+53 Point differentialseason to date +22

197Passing yards / game185

231Rushing yards / game296

48%3rd-down conversion50%

7Takeaways7

0Sacks0

2Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Cincinnati’s road games with West Virginia’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.