Moneyline
ISU MLodds down −159
64%
Iowa State wins the game.
Confidence64%
Model54.6%
SportsbooksOdds56.2%
Edge−1.6
Cincinnati vs Iowa State prediction, picks and odds
SpreadISU −3.5
Total59.5 points
Kickoff in2d 20h
Updated 3:17 PM ET
Cincinnati vs Iowa State picks
3 picks · Iowa State by 7 · 49 pointsSpreadBest pick
ISU +3.5−238
76%
Iowa State wins, or loses by three points or fewer.
Confidence76%
Model64.7%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge−2.4
Total
Under 68.5odds down −256
74%
The two teams score 68 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model79.2%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+10.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Cincinnati014071421
Iowa State714702128
Most likely final scoresCIN 21–28 ISU 0.6%CIN 21–24 ISU 0.5%CIN 31–34 ISU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
CincinnatiIowa State
Offense
403
Total yards
421
226
Passing yards
234
177
Rushing yards
187
20
First downs
22
Scoring
3
Touchdowns
4
1
Passing touchdowns
2
2
Rushing touchdowns
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
52
Penalty yards
51
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 330.5
Proj. 403
72%
Passing yards
Over 169.5
Proj. 226
72%
Rushing yards
Over 124.5
Proj. 177
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Total yards
Over 348.5
Proj. 421
72%
Passing yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 234
72%
Rushing yards
Over 135.5
Proj. 188
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Cincinnati
QB
JC French19/30 · 226 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT
226pass yds
RB
Cole Tabb12 carries · 93 rush yds · 1.2 TD · 3 rec
93rush yds
WR/TE
JaVonnie Gibson5 rec · 59 yds · 0.1 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Malachi Henry2 rec · 51 yds · 0.2 TD
51rec yds
Iowa State
QB
Jaylen Raynor18/28 · 215 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT
215pass yds
RB
Aiden Flora20 carries · 145 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 4 rec
145rush yds
WR/TE
Jamal Polite Jr.3 rec · 46 yds · 0.2 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Omari Hayes3 rec · 30 yds · 0.2 TD
30rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at ISU −2.5 and is now ISU −3.5, a 1-point move toward Iowa State.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
CincinnatiIowa State
CincinnatiIowa State
5-4Record4-5
L2StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
33.0Points per game29.2
29.4Points allowed28.9
9th Big 12Conference14th Big 12
+32
Point differentialseason to date
+3
225Passing yards / game200
222Rushing yards / game181
47%3rd-down conversion35%
12Takeaways10
0Sacks0
7Turnovers8
253Passing yards / game233
156Rushing yards / game224
53%3rd-down conversion40%
1Takeaways9
0Sacks0
1Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Cincinnati’s road games with Iowa State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Cincinnati
5-4
LLWLL
Wk 10Nov 7@ HOU
Cincinnati24Houston31
Cincinnati moneyline +300Houston moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs UTAH
Utah49Cincinnati25
Utah moneyline −303Cincinnati moneyline +225
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs TTU
Texas Tech24Cincinnati37
Texas Tech moneyline −500Cincinnati moneyline +330
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ WVU
Cincinnati42West Virginia45
Cincinnati moneyline +100West Virginia moneyline −123
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ ARIZ
Cincinnati7Arizona34
Cincinnati moneyline +210Arizona moneyline −303
LFINAL
Iowa State
4-5
WLLWL
Wk 10Nov 7@ BAY
Iowa State31Baylor42
Iowa State moneyline +290Baylor moneyline −385
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs OKST
Oklahoma St49Iowa State51
Oklahoma St moneyline −435Iowa State moneyline +300
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ ARIZ
Iowa State3Arizona39
Iowa State moneyline +310Arizona moneyline −455
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9@ BYU
Iowa State10BYU24
Iowa State moneyline +350BYU moneyline −476
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs WVU
West Virginia42Iowa State45
West Virginia moneyline +122Iowa State moneyline −161
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameBig 12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
CINCINNATI
1
Wins
Avg. points38.0 – 30.0
Avg. total68.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
IOWA STATE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 6Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati38Iowa State30
Cincinnati moneyline +102Iowa State moneyline −130
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CIN)+120+120
Moneyline (ISU)−147−147
Spread (ISU)−2.5down −3.5
Total57.5up 59.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Cincinnati visits Iowa State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM ET. Cincinnati comes in at 5-4 and Iowa State at 4-5. The moneyline has Cincinnati at +120 and Iowa State at −147.
Our model predicts a final score of Cincinnati 21, Iowa State 28. Its picks: Iowa State to win (−159); Iowa State +3.5 (−238); under 68.5 points (−256). The best pick is Iowa State +3.5, at 76% confidence.