Cincinnati vs Houston Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CIN	0	10	7	7	24
HOU	14	7	3	7	31

Cincinnati vs Houston picks

3 picks · Houston by 3 · 59 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

HOU MLodds up −400 Won 91%

Houston wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model69.1% SportsbooksOdds79.0% Edge−9.9

Spread

CIN +19.5odds down −270 Won 83%

Cincinnati wins, or loses by 19 points or fewer.

Confidence83%

Model75.7% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+7.4

Total

Under 70.5odds down −294 Won 74%

The two teams score 70 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model77.7% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+8.8

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Cincinnati770141428

Houston7140102131

Most likely final scoresCIN 28–31 HOU 0.6%CIN 31–34 HOU 0.5%CIN 21–35 HOU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

CincinnatiHouston

Offense

401▼ 379 Total yards ▲ 468461

241▼ 217 Passing yards ▼ 227274

160▲ 162 Rushing yards ▲ 241187

20▲ 30 First downs ▼ 2325

Scoring

4▼ 3 Touchdowns = 44

2= 2 Passing touchdowns = 22

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 22

0▲ 1 Field goals made = 11

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

57▼ 54 Penalty yards ▼ 5051

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 328.5 Proj. 401 72% Won · 379

Passing yards Over 184.5 Proj. 242 72% Won · 217

Rushing yards Over 107.5 Proj. 160 72% Won · 162

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 30

Total yards Over 387.5 Proj. 461 72% Won · 468

Passing yards Over 216.5 Proj. 274 72% Won · 227

Rushing yards Over 134.5 Proj. 187 72% Won · 241

First downs Over 20.5 Proj. 25 74% Won · 23

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Cincinnati

QB JC French19/30 · 241 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.8 INT 241pass yds

RB Cole Tabb10 carries · 88 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 3 rec 88rush yds

WR/TE JaVonnie Gibson5 rec · 61 yds · 0.4 TD 61rec yds

WR/TE Isaiah Johnson4 rec · 40 yds · 0.2 TD 40rec yds

Houston

QB Conner Weigman22/33 · 274 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 274pass yds

RB Makhi Hughes15 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 70rush yds

WR/TE Patrick Overmyer5 rec · 56 yds · 0.8 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Trent Walker4 rec · 54 yds · 0.3 TD 54rec yds

Road form. Cincinnati is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 15.0 points a game.

Home form. Houston is 4-0 at home, scoring 43.0 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 60.5 and is now 61.5.

Rest. Cincinnati comes in on 7 days’ rest, Houston on 14.

Tale of the tape

CincinnatiHouston

5-3Record6-2

0-2 roadRoad / home4-0 home

L1StreakL1

7 daysRest14 days

34.1Points per game36.0

29.3Points allowed21.0

+39 Point differentialseason to date +120

226Passing yards / game267

229Rushing yards / game203

45%3rd-down conversion60%

12Takeaways12

0Sacks0

6Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Cincinnati’s road games with Houston’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.