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Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons prediction, picks and odds

Back to the NFL Week 10 picks NFL picks Week 10 Sunday, November 15 · 1:00 PM ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Chiefs
Away · 6-2ML −185
1:00PM Kickoff Sun, Nov 15 · ET
Falcons
ML +155Home · 3-6
SpreadKC −3.5
Total45 points
Kickoff in3d 21h

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Predictions3 Comparison Recent games Standings Head-to-head Odds Injuries
Updated 1:48 PM ET

Chiefs vs Falcons picks

3 picks · Chiefs by 3 · 37 points
Moneyline
KC MLodds down −185 58%
The Chiefs win the game.
Confidence58%
Model54.0% SportsbooksOdds61.7% Edge−7.7
Spread
ATL +7.5odds up −238 69%
The Falcons win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence69%
Model59.6% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge−8.5
TotalBest pick
Under 51.5odds up −250 77%
The two teams score 51 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model60.9% SportsbooksOdds69.1% Edge−8.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Chiefs0101001020
Falcons37071017
Most likely final scoresKC 20–17 ATL 1.0%KC 23–20 ATL 0.8%KC 27–24 ATL 0.6%
Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ChiefsFalcons

Offense

354 Total yards 314
223 Passing yards 198
131 Rushing yards 116
20 First downs 19

Scoring

2 Touchdowns 2
1 Passing touchdowns 1
1 Rushing touchdowns 1
2 Field goals made 1

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1
1 Interceptions thrown 1
1 Fumbles lost 1
2 Sacks allowed 2
53 Penalty yards 52
Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards Over 307.5 Proj. 354 72%
Passing yards Over 181.5 Proj. 223 72%
Rushing yards Over 102.5 Proj. 131 72%
First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 20 72%
Total yards Over 267.5 Proj. 314 72%
Passing yards Over 156.5 Proj. 198 72%
Rushing yards Over 87.5 Proj. 116 72%
First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 74%
Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes22/33 · 223 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT 223pass yds
RB Kenneth Walker III20 carries · 104 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec 104rush yds
WR/TE Travis Kelce4 rec · 48 yds · 0.1 TD 48rec yds
WR/TE Xavier Worthy4 rec · 37 yds · 0.0 TD 37rec yds
Falcons
QB Michael Penix Jr.19/31 · 198 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 198pass yds
RB Bijan Robinson19 carries · 86 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 86rush yds
WR/TE Drake London5 rec · 71 yds · 0.1 TD 71rec yds
WR/TE Kyle Pitts4 rec · 34 yds · 0.4 TD 34rec yds

The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 10 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The Chiefs come in at 6-2 and the Falcons at 3-6. The moneyline has the Chiefs at −185 and the Falcons at +155.

Our model predicts a final score of Chiefs 20, Falcons 17. Its picks: the Chiefs to win (−185); the Falcons +7.5 (−238); under 51.5 points (−250). The best pick is under 51.5 points, at 77% confidence.