Charlotte vs North Texas Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CLT	3	7	0	0	10
UNT	10	30	7	3	50

Charlotte vs North Texas picks

3 picks · North Texas by 43 · 57 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

UNT MLodds up −3333 Won 85%

North Texas wins the game.

Confidence85%

Model97.2% SportsbooksOdds97.8% Edge−0.6

Spread

UNT −21.5odds up −200 Won 85%

North Texas wins by 22 points or more.

Confidence85%

Model73.7% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+5.4

TotalBest pick

Over 50.5odds up −256 Won 85%

The two teams score 51 or more points between them.

Confidence85%

Model73.6% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge+3.7

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Charlotte007007

North Texas7176202450

Most likely final scoresCLT 7–50 UNT 0.6%CLT 7–45 UNT 0.6%CLT 7–48 UNT 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

CharlotteNorth Texas

Offense

280▼ 274 Total yards ▲ 580520

168▲ 218 Passing yards ▲ 382320

112▼ 56 Rushing yards ▼ 198200

15▼ 11 First downs ▼ 2427

Scoring

1= 1 Touchdowns = 66

0▲ 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 53

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 13

0▲ 1 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

2= 2 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▼ 33 Penalty yards ▼ 5055

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 206.5 Proj. 280 72% Won · 274

Passing yards Over 110.5 Proj. 167 72% Won · 218

Rushing yards Over 59.5 Proj. 112 72% Lost · 56

First downs Over 11.5 Proj. 15 70% Lost · 11

Total yards Over 446.5 Proj. 520 72% Won · 580

Passing yards Over 263.5 Proj. 320 72% Won · 382

Rushing yards Over 147.5 Proj. 200 72% Won · 198

First downs Over 23.5 Proj. 27 72% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Charlotte

QB Cole Gonzales14/25 · 149 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.8 INT 149pass yds

RB Khamani Alexander10 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Jaden Barnes5 rec · 49 yds · 0.0 TD 49rec yds

WR/TE Jaylen Hampton4 rec · 43 yds · 0.0 TD 43rec yds

North Texas

QB Tayven Jackson23/32 · 286 pass yds · 2.5 TD · 0.7 INT 286pass yds

RB Jahiem White19 carries · 128 rush yds · 1.8 TD · 4 rec 128rush yds

WR/TE Justin Stevenson5 rec · 63 yds · 0.8 TD 63rec yds

WR/TE Corri Milliner4 rec · 62 yds · 0.3 TD 62rec yds

Road form. Charlotte is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 18.5 points a game.

Home form. North Texas is 2-0 at home, scoring 53.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UNT −28.5 and is now UNT −27.5, a 1-point move toward Charlotte.

Rest. Charlotte comes in on 7 days’ rest, North Texas on 9.

Streak. Charlotte has lost 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

CharlotteNorth Texas

0-5Record3-2

0-2 roadRoad / home2-0 home

L5StreakW2

7 daysRest9 days

17.2Points per game40.6

40.6Points allowed33.0

−117 Point differentialseason to date +38

180Passing yards / game338

111Rushing yards / game178

27%3rd-down conversion51%

4Takeaways7

0Sacks0

13Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Charlotte’s road games with North Texas’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.