MoneylineBest pick
KC ML−417
Won 90%
The Chiefs win the game.
Confidence90%
Model67.7%
SportsbooksOdds79.2%
Edge−11.5
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 18, 7:54 PM ET
Chargers vs Chiefs picks
3 picks · Chiefs by 3 · 37 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
LAC +15.5odds down −278
Lost 79%
The Chargers win, or lose by 15 points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model73.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+4.8
Total
Over 36.5odds up −222
Lost 76%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them.
Confidence76%
Model68.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge−0.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Chargers0773717
Chiefs07310720
Most likely final scoresLAC 17–20 KC 1.0%LAC 20–23 KC 0.8%LAC 17–24 KC 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ChargersChiefs
Offense
303▼ 259
Total yards
▲ 422329
190▼ 186
Passing yards
▲ 272203
113▼ 73
Rushing yards
▲ 150126
18▼ 15
First downs
▲ 2219
Scoring
2▼ 0
Touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▲ 4
Sacks allowed
▼ 02
53▲ 59
Penalty yards
▲ 8955
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 256.5
Proj. 303
72%
Won · 259
Passing yards
Over 148.5
Proj. 190
72%
Won · 186
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 113
72%
Lost · 73
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
73%
Lost · 15
Total yards
Over 282.5
Proj. 329
72%
Won · 422
Passing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 203
72%
Won · 272
Rushing yards
Over 97.5
Proj. 126
72%
Won · 150
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Chargers
QB
Justin Herbert20/32 · 190 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
190pass yds
RB
Omarion Hampton14 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
48rush yds
WR/TE
Tre Harris3 rec · 52 yds · 0.0 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Keaton Mitchell3 rec · 16 yds · 0.3 TD
16rec yds
Chiefs
QB
Patrick Mahomes19/30 · 203 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
203pass yds
RB
Kenneth Walker III21 carries · 105 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 3 rec
105rush yds
WR/TE
Travis Kelce4 rec · 50 yds · 0.2 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Xavier Worthy3 rec · 27 yds · 0.1 TD
27rec yds
Road form. The Chargers are 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 7.5 points a game.
Home form. The Chiefs are 2-0 at home, scoring 32.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 45.5 and is now 41.5.
Rest. The Chargers come in on 7 days’ rest, the Chiefs on 14.
Division game. Two AFC West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Los Angeles ChargersKansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles ChargersKansas City Chiefs
0-5Record4-0
0-2 roadRoad / home2-0 home
L5StreakW4
7 daysRest14 days
16.8Points per game29.5
25.8Points allowed19.3
−45
Point differentialseason to date
+41
4.8Yards per play6.5
165Passing yards / game250
128Rushing yards / game162
35%3rd-down conversion44%
62%Red-zone touchdowns63%
8Takeaways7
11Sacks4
13Turnovers2
4.9Yards per play6.3
186Passing yards / game272
139Rushing yards / game186
37%3rd-down conversion47%
43%Red-zone touchdowns60%
6Takeaways3
7Sacks4
5Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Chargers’ road games with the Chiefs’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Chargers
0-5
LLLLL
Wk 5Oct 11vs DEN
Broncos23Chargers17
Broncos moneyline −189Chargers moneyline +151
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ SEA
Chargers23Seahawks30
Chargers moneyline +265Seahawks moneyline −357
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ BUF
Chargers16Bills24
Chargers moneyline +270Bills moneyline −345
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs LV
Raiders26Chargers14
Raiders moneyline +245Chargers moneyline −313
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs ARI
Cardinals26Chargers14
Cardinals moneyline +360Chargers moneyline −500
LFINAL
Chiefs
4-0
LWWWW
Wk 4Oct 4@ LV
Chiefs30Raiders27
Chiefs moneyline −227Raiders moneyline +185
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ MIA
Chiefs24Dolphins10
Chiefs moneyline −625Dolphins moneyline +440
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs IND
Colts30Chiefs33
Colts moneyline +215Chiefs moneyline −294
WF/OT
Wk 1Sep 14vs DEN
Broncos10Chiefs31
Broncos moneyline +106Chiefs moneyline −128
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ LV
Chiefs12Raiders14
Chiefs moneyline −227Raiders moneyline +157
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
CHARGERS
2
Wins
Avg. points16.4 – 16.6
Avg. total33.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 5
3
CHIEFS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 15GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Chargers16Chiefs13
Chargers moneyline +215Chiefs moneyline −286
2025 · Wk 1Corinthians Arena
Chiefs21Chargers27
Chiefs moneyline −179Chargers moneyline +147
2024 · Wk 14GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Chargers17Chiefs19
Chargers moneyline +185Chiefs moneyline −238
2024 · Wk 4SoFi Stadium
Chiefs17Chargers10
Chiefs moneyline −333Chargers moneyline +250
2023 · Wk 18SoFi Stadium
Chiefs13Chargers12
Chiefs moneyline +147Chargers moneyline −175
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (LAC)+340down +330
Moneyline (KC)−435up −417
Spread (KC)−7.5−7.5
Total45.5down 41.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Los Angeles Chargers 22–6 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 18 at 4:25 PM ET, at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. The moneyline had the Chargers at +330 and the Chiefs at −417.
Our model predicted a final score of Chargers 17, Chiefs 20. Its picks: the Chiefs to win (−417), won; the Chargers +15.5 (−278), lost; over 36.5 points (−222), lost. The best pick was the Chiefs to win, at 90% confidence.