California vs SMU Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CAL	7	13	0	0	20
SMU	10	7	21	21	59

California vs SMU picks

3 picks · SMU by 21 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

SMU MLodds down −1250 Won 95%

SMU wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model86.3% SportsbooksOdds89.9% Edge−3.6

SpreadBest pick

CAL +27.5odds up −270 Lost 77%

California wins, or loses by 27 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model70.3% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge−0.1

Total

Over 46.5odds down −313 Won 74%

The two teams score 47 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.9% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge−0.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

California0770714

SMU714772135

Most likely final scoresCAL 14–35 SMU 0.5%CAL 14–38 SMU 0.5%CAL 17–41 SMU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

CaliforniaSMU

Offense

330▼ 305 Total yards ▲ 492450

230▲ 265 Passing yards ▼ 236276

100▼ 40 Rushing yards ▲ 256174

18▼ 16 First downs ▲ 3123

Scoring

2= 2 Touchdowns ▲ 84

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 52

0▲ 2 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

68▲ 107 Penalty yards ▼ 5071

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 256.5 Proj. 330 72% Won · 305

Passing yards Over 172.5 Proj. 230 72% Won · 265

Rushing yards Over 48.5 Proj. 100 72% Lost · 40

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 73% Won · 16

Total yards Over 377.5 Proj. 450 72% Won · 492

Passing yards Over 219.5 Proj. 276 72% Won · 236

Rushing yards Over 121.5 Proj. 174 72% Won · 256

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 73% Won · 31

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

California

QB Jackson Brousseau13/23 · 112 pass yds · 0.4 TD · 0.0 INT 112pass yds

RB Ashten Emory11 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 39rush yds

WR/TE Chase Hendricks6 rec · 46 yds · 0.1 TD 46rec yds

WR/TE Ian Strong4 rec · 45 yds · 0.1 TD 45rec yds

SMU

QB Kevin Jennings20/30 · 260 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 260pass yds

RB Kendrick Raphael17 carries · 111 rush yds · 1.5 TD · 1 rec 111rush yds

WR/TE Yamir Knight5 rec · 58 yds · 0.2 TD 58rec yds

WR/TE Jalen Cooper3 rec · 42 yds · 0.1 TD 42rec yds

Road form. California is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 2.5 points a game.

Home form. SMU is 4-0 at home, scoring 34.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at SMU −17.5 and is now SMU −18.5, a 1-point move toward SMU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. SMU has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

CaliforniaSMU

3-4Record5-1

1-1 roadRoad / home4-0 home

L1StreakW3

7 daysRest7 days

23.9Points per game32.7

27.7Points allowed21.3

−27 Point differentialseason to date +68

288Passing yards / game329

90Rushing yards / game142

38%3rd-down conversion48%

9Takeaways6

0Sacks0

8Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares California’s road games with SMU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.