Moneyline
NCST MLodds down −345
Won 94%
NC State wins the game.
Confidence94%
Model78.3%
SportsbooksOdds74.8%
Edge+3.5
California vs NC State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| NCST | 7 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
CALIFORNIA 22%
Pre-game win chance
78% NC STATE
NCST by 28 · 56 points
Updated Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET
California vs NC State picks
3 picks · NC State by 28 · 56 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
NCST +1.5odds up −278
Won 79%
NC State wins, or loses by one point or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model79.9%
SportsbooksOdds73.9%
Edge+6.0
Total
Under 65.5odds down −270
Won 74%
The two teams score 65 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model70.3%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+1.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
California0707714
NC State14141402842
Most likely final scoresCAL 14–42 NCST 0.6%CAL 28–35 NCST 0.5%CAL 21–35 NCST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
CaliforniaNC State
Offense
364▼ 269
Total yards
▼ 327415
265▼ 196
Passing yards
▼ 192242
99▼ 73
Rushing yards
▼ 135173
20▼ 15
First downs
▼ 1923
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 45
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 23
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
67▲ 81
Penalty yards
▼ 4861
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 291.5
Proj. 364
72%
Lost · 269
Passing yards
Over 208.5
Proj. 265
72%
Lost · 196
Rushing yards
Over 46.5
Proj. 99
72%
Won · 73
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
69%
Lost · 15
Total yards
Over 341.5
Proj. 415
72%
Lost · 327
Passing yards
Over 185.5
Proj. 242
72%
Won · 192
Rushing yards
Over 120.5
Proj. 173
72%
Won · 135
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 23
75%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
California
QB
JaronKeawe Sagapolutele18/26 · 196 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.6 INT
196pass yds
RB
Ashten Emory13 carries · 46 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
46rush yds
WR/TE
Chase Hendricks6 rec · 59 yds · 0.1 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Tyree Sams3 rec · 19 yds · 0.0 TD
19rec yds
NC State
QB
CJ Bailey19/30 · 238 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT
238pass yds
RB
Davion Gause11 carries · 40 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 3 rec
40rush yds
WR/TE
Keenan Jackson4 rec · 64 yds · 0.9 TD
64rec yds
WR/TE
Preston Douglas3 rec · 40 yds · 0.2 TD
40rec yds
Road form. California is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 14.7 points a game.
Home form. NC State is 3-1 at home, scoring 39.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NCST −7.5 and is now NCST −9.5, a 2-point move toward NC State.
Rest. California comes in on 7 days’ rest, NC State on 8.
Tale of the tape
CaliforniaNC State
CaliforniaNC State
3-5Record3-4
1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home
L2StreakL2
7 daysRest8 days
23.4Points per game32.3
31.6Points allowed28.1
−66
Point differentialseason to date
+29
285Passing yards / game258
84Rushing yards / game162
37%3rd-down conversion52%
9Takeaways8
0Sacks0
8Turnovers9
281Passing yards / game294
59Rushing yards / game192
28%3rd-down conversion59%
5Takeaways5
0Sacks0
1Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares California’s road games with NC State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
California
3-5
LLWLL
Wk 8Oct 24@ SMU
California20SMU59
California moneyline +750SMU moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs WAKE
Wake Forest41California7
Wake Forest moneyline −455California moneyline +325
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs VT
Virginia Tech20California25
Virginia Tech moneyline −417California moneyline +252
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ UNLV
California31UNLV39
California moneyline −106UNLV moneyline −125
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 25vs CLEM
Clemson24California10
Clemson moneyline −149California moneyline +112
LFINAL
NC State
3-4
LWWLL
Wk 8Oct 23@ STAN
NC State28Stanford31
NC State moneyline −323Stanford moneyline +235
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs WAKE
Wake Forest38NC State14
Wake Forest moneyline −175NC State moneyline +145
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs LOU
Louisville28NC State31
Louisville moneyline −233NC State moneyline +170
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs APP
App State31NC State41
App State moneyline +370NC State moneyline −588
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ VAN
NC State31Vanderbilt35
NC State moneyline +128Vanderbilt moneyline −164
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameACC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CAL)+255+255
Moneyline (NCST)−333−333
Spread (NCST)−7.5down −9.5
Total56.556.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
NC State beat California 31–10 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 12:00 PM ET. The moneyline had California at +255 and NC State at −333.
Our model predicted a final score of California 14, NC State 42. Its picks: NC State to win (−345), won; NC State +1.5 (−278), won; under 65.5 points (−270), won. The best pick was NC State +1.5, at 79% confidence.