MoneylineBest pick
BYU MLodds down −345
Lost 93%
BYU wins the game.
Confidence93%
Model75.3%
SportsbooksOdds71.6%
Edge+3.7
BYU vs UCF prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 24, 9:05 PM ET
BYU vs UCF picks
3 picks · BYU by 28 · 42 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
BYU +1.5odds down −333
Lost 84%
BYU wins, or loses by one point or fewer.
Confidence84%
Model77.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+7.2
Total
Over 37.5odds up −217
Won 74%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model73.2%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+6.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
BYU147772135
UCF070077
Most likely final scoresBYU 35–7 UCF 0.7%BYU 28–21 UCF 0.7%BYU 28–14 UCF 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
BYUUCF
Offense
396▼ 373
Total yards
▲ 463306
238▲ 257
Passing yards
▲ 293195
158▼ 116
Rushing yards
▲ 170111
20▼ 18
First downs
▲ 2617
Scoring
4= 4
Touchdowns
▲ 51
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 20
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▲ 10
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▼ 46
Penalty yards
▼ 4047
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 322.5
Proj. 396
72%
Won · 373
Passing yards
Over 180.5
Proj. 238
72%
Won · 257
Rushing yards
Over 105.5
Proj. 158
72%
Won · 116
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 233.5
Proj. 306
72%
Won · 463
Passing yards
Over 138.5
Proj. 196
72%
Won · 293
Rushing yards
Over 58.5
Proj. 111
72%
Won · 170
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
71%
Won · 26
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
BYU
QB
Bear Bachmeier19/29 · 232 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT
232pass yds
RB
Preston Rex6 carries · 23 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
23rush yds
WR/TE
Legend Glasker5 rec · 82 yds · 0.6 TD
82rec yds
WR/TE
Kyler Kasper4 rec · 45 yds · 0.6 TD
45rec yds
UCF
QB
Keyone Jenkins18/29 · 162 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.6 INT
162pass yds
RB
Duke Watson11 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
55rush yds
WR/TE
Joshua Derry5 rec · 51 yds · 0.2 TD
51rec yds
WR/TE
Caden Piening3 rec · 28 yds · 0.3 TD
28rec yds
Road form. BYU is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 12.5 points a game.
Home form. UCF is 3-0 at home, scoring 46.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 45.5 and is now 43.5.
Rest. BYU comes in on 7 days’ rest, UCF on 14.
Streak. BYU has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
BYUUCF
BYUUCF
6-0Record3-3
2-0 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W6StreakL2
7 daysRest14 days
33.5Points per game31.7
15.2Points allowed21.7
+110
Point differentialseason to date
+60
215Passing yards / game193
207Rushing yards / game162
57%3rd-down conversion36%
8Takeaways11
0Sacks0
5Turnovers7
145Passing yards / game149
243Rushing yards / game257
48%3rd-down conversion37%
2Takeaways9
0Sacks0
2Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares BYU’s road games with UCF’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
BYU
6-0
WWWWW
Wk 7Oct 17vs ND
Notre Dame24BYU28
Notre Dame moneyline −476BYU moneyline +350
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs ISU
Iowa State10BYU24
Iowa State moneyline +350BYU moneyline −476
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ TCU
BYU17TCU10
BYU moneyline −233TCU moneyline +175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ CSU
BYU41Colorado St23
BYU moneyline −1111Colorado St moneyline +540
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs ARIZ
Arizona17BYU28
Arizona moneyline +200BYU moneyline −286
WFINAL
UCF
3-3
LWWLL
Wk 6Oct 10@ OKST
UCF28Oklahoma St42
UCF moneyline +340Oklahoma St moneyline −476
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ HOU
UCF17Houston27
UCF moneyline +300Houston moneyline −455
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs TCU
TCU13UCF21
TCU moneyline −192UCF moneyline +138
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs GAST
Georgia St30UCF44
Georgia St moneyline +600UCF moneyline −1111
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ PITT
UCF7Pitt12
UCF moneyline +220Pitt moneyline −313
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig 12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
BYU
1
Wins
Avg. points41.0 – 21.0
Avg. total62.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
UCF
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 14BYU home
UCF21BYU41
UCF moneyline +630BYU moneyline −1250
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BYU)−323down −345
Moneyline (UCF)+235up +250
Spread (UCF)+7.5+7.5
Total45.5down 43.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
UCF beat BYU 39–31 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had BYU at −345 and UCF at +250.
Our model predicted a final score of BYU 35, UCF 7. Its picks: BYU to win (−345), lost; BYU +1.5 (−333), lost; over 37.5 points (−217), won. The best pick was BYU to win, at 93% confidence.